32-17 65.3% +$3,792.00 Run Since Labor Day
MIAMI +3 +102 (TOP PLAY): WINNER!
Less than half of the bets are on our guys here on the spread so expect this one to gain some value late. As usual; consider half on now and half on before game time. I like the outright win and getting the spread on a key handle (+3) for plus odds. Each teams is littered with injuries, but Florida is much worse off and Key Miami running back Duke Johnson if probable now for Saturday.
AL GOLDEN:
***Under head coach Al Golden, Miami is 9-1 SU and 10-0-0 (+9.65 ppg, 100%) ATS with a modest line between +3.5 and -7. That’s 5-0 SU (+18.2 ppg) at home.
(Actually what is interesting is that, since all the way back to 1980, Miami is 80-14 (85.1%) SU off of a no cover SU win….)
*Al Golden is also 13-1 (+16.93 ppg) SU and 13-1 (+12.71 ppg) ATS in all games as a head coach with any team after his guys won SU but failed to cover.
KEY SYSTEM:
*Since 2008, Home 1-A Teams with high powered offenses in the previous season (>=31 ppg) are 32-4 (88.9%, +34.01 units) SU in non-conference games facing other 1-A teams.
Miami is at home with points, and the public perception is that they are a full 6 points worse than their opponent.
Fade the public here. The #12 team is all anyone’s seeing here, but the bookmakers put this one on the handle so there is no real conviction with them at least that Florida is going to do anything at all. The raw numbers have it out for Florida and that is the main reason we’ll back this as a top play.