5-0 Run on NCAAF Top Plays
2-0 on the Top Plays last week. Sweet deal. We have one top play and two runner ups this week…
NCAAF RAW NUMBERS – SYSTEMS
Week 11 Action:
–Top Plays (1)
11/14/15 3:00PM Arkansas State vs UL Monroe
Arkansas State -14
1.5 unit BLOWOUT WINNER!
Arkansas State *Top Play:
First off. LA Monroe has one of the longest list of injuries this week. Based on that alone, I’d at a minimum negate whatever home field advantage you’d give LAMonroe. Second; LA Monroe is coming home flat off of an embarrassing 14-51 loss to Troy on the road.
LA Monroe is 0-7 ATS (-13.64 ppg) since Sep 07, 2013 at home after a loss as a road dog
The last occurrence in the vicinity of two touchdowns home dog was on October 17th when App. State crushed them 59-14.
Third; facing Arkansas State right now, on the home or road..doesn’t matter, is like trying to stop a freight train. They’re off of 5 straight wins. This is College Football; if anyone thinks they’re going to take a breather here, they’re wrong.
A road team off of 3+ straight wins playing on a Saturday is 63-31-1 ATS if they played their last game on the road.
SU: 80-30-0 (9.94, 72.7%)
ATS: 72-36-2 (4.85, 66.7%) avg line: -5.1
Final thought: This one gets pretty simple when you consider the following trend:
Since 2010, Sub .250 terrible home dogs facing a plus .500 team are an unbelievably horrible 18-187-0 (-20.48 ppg, 8.8%) SU. That’s 130-72-3 (64.4%) ATS to fade. So simple and ’nuff said.