A 24-7-1 (77%) +22.25 Unit Football Weekend

The 9/23 – 9/26 Football Weekend went:
24-7-0 ATS (77%) +22.25 UNITS


In NFL we went: 9-2-1 ATS 81.8% for +11.75 units
Here's what we had:

#424 Indianapolis Colts +10 (1.5 units) WINNER! +1.5
over the Steelers

"All the way up until week 15's Super Bowl losers are 25% ATS as road favorites. Since 2003, they are 5-15 ATS. As -2.5 favorites or more they are 3-13 ATS. In week 3, people like to put a fork in teams that look terrible. If a team lost by a TD or worse in their last and 2 TDs or a field goal or worse in their one before that (week 1 and week 2), these teams are a solid 6-16 ATS in week 3. I have the Colts covering by 7 points in this game. Point spread is too big here I think even if God's NFL team was playing on the road here let alone a Super Bowl Loser."

[EDIT]: Here is an unorthodox dummy way of seeing how the SuperBowl loser does the next year as a favorite on the road OR at home: SDQL LINK
– Since 2003, here's a nice 12-33-1 ATS (73.3% fade) version of the same thing!

#411 Kansas City Chiefs +14.5 (3 units) WINNER! +3.0
over the San Diego Chargers

"It seems pretty set into people's minds that KC is done for the season, but go ahead and look at all of the injuries San Diego has. Antonio Gates is out for Sunday so I'm locking it in now not that I really anticipate a ton of action on the Chiefs. Maybe the line moves maybe it doesn't. KC has left suck a stink in the air I don't anticipate many people wanting to take them. I like the points though, and I like the trend above that applies to the Colts (and it also applies to the Rams over the Ravens). The public says, stick a fork in these teams, they're done. Here are some notes:

Teams are 54-24 after being beaten by the spread by more than 28 points in their previous game. Underdogs are 51-20 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a loss by 10 or more points. Home favorites are 22-48 after a loss by 14 or more points against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. Kansas City is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) when they allow 3.5 to 4 rushing yards per attempt since 1992. They are is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992. KC is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. They are is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) in road games after a loss by 10 or more points since 1992.  

I don't think anyone will see a KC cover coming. Highly doubtful that the win, but with Antonio Gates out I have KC to cover by 7 points. Even with AG and SDG healthy I have them to cover by a field goal. A little sugar coating on top: Norv Turner is one of the easiest exploits in early season NFL. This season the Chargers are 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. The special teams is usually responsible, but there isn't ever a real great team bond until about week 5 or 6 for the Chargers each year. Get a new coach for the team, and you're got playoffs locked almost every year. If SDG fails to cover here get ready to start playing ON them. Things will click and we'll be getting fair prices. Remember the Colts game last season (we took SDG +3 there completely under the radar). Well for now -14.5 is completely ridiculous. They aren't ready, they are injured, and the Chiefs desperately need a win (oh and they know that they can beat them. Remember how they ruined SDG's season last year?). "

#401 New York Giants +9 (1.5 units) WINNER! +1.5
over the Philadelphia Eagles

"The Giants had an unlucky turnover margin last year while the Eagles managed to keep the count low. I say that's all luck, and my theory on what happens is this: Eagles gets cocky while the Giants know they are better than how they looked. Now the Eagle are slipping a bit and the Giants are getting their engines started. I have an interesting micro trend based on a larger premise. If you having a team that was "unlucky" in the last season now facing a fortunate or arguably lucky team before week 4…unlucky team with the momentum..they are off a win and their luck opponent is off of a loss it is 14-4 ATS. That is a great angle, and again, just a micro of a larger base system. Computer says the Giants don't lose by more than 1 TD here."

[EDIT]: Here is the SDQL link for the Giants (12-1 ATS): Early momentum + Regression Micro Link

#420 Seattle Seahawks +3.5 (1.5 units) WINNER!+1.5 
over the Arizona Cardinals

"Just a regular play. I like taking a team that just got blown out by a pissed off team. Seahawks look bad now, but I think they'll be able to handle the Cardinals who aren't anything special. The Seahawks play their first home game, and get huge advantage. QWest has some interesting acoustics that really favor the Seahawks, and stifle audibles. The Seahawks have always been bad, but they've beaten some of the greatest play callers here…simply because you can't hear yourself think if your are the opponent quarterback. I've got the Seahawks to win by 6 points, and I love the points on this lousy team to beat this other lousy team."

#414 Oakland Raiders +3 (1 unit) WINNER! +1
over the New York Jets

"Where to the Jets excel? Rushing offense. Where are the Raiders good? Rushing defense. I could see this being close so get +3 and nothing less. After this game the Jets travel to play the Ravens and Pats. Oakland has all the momentum and the Jets may not be into this game. Rio needs a win here. I have a 3 point straight up win here for Oakland. Small play."

#409 Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 (1.5 units) LOSE -1.65
over the Carolina Panthers

"Jacksonville looks terrible, but the Panthers just blew another lead. Carolina is showing some good pick me up so far, but I think (bad as they are) the Jaguars have an easy exploit here. I have Jacksonville to win straight up and cover by 5 points."

#396 Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 (1 unit) LOSE -1.1
over the SFO 49ers

"I hate taking the Bengals, but this is a great price for a home favorite playing against a disheveled weary road traveler. They've always seemed like a bad team to me, but they've surprised us this year. Raw numbers say Cinci wins by 5.65 points so I'll back that! Add to it, the 49ers are off of a heart breaking overtime loss. Tough to pick up after that. Now they have to play in an eastern time zone."

#415 Baltimore Ravens -4 (1 unit) WINNER! +1
over the Rams

"I have Ravens to win this one by 9 which is a lot. They look great to me on paper, but I'm going light for the same reason I am TAKING the Colts and the Chiefs. Put a fork in the Rams they're done. Wrong. This is my square play of the week. But again, the Ravens are looking outstanding."

#421 Green Bay Packers -4 (1 units) WINNER! +1
over the Bears

"Watching Jay Cutler get sacked… what was it six times in a row last week?… made me want to cry. The Bears offensive line is going to be under another firestorm here from Dom Capers' defense, and Cutler has got to be aching from last week. If he's not aching, you might expect him to be a little gun shy or something. He's the hardest player to read in the NFL, but I personally get the vibe that he hates playing for the Bears. I could be completely wrong. My friends all tell me that I am there, but shit…if I was playing the Martz style sit in the pocket send Hester and Forte deep no blitz coverage QB role I'd want to pack my panties in a bag and go home lol. Who knows maybe Cutler is the man this week, and hops around in the pocket a little better to compensate for guys like Omiyale on the Oline never covering his ass. The one thing Cutler could do more, and I've seen him do it once in a while is the QB sneak, but he doesn't. I don't blame him; he gets battered up enough. Anyways, enough of my banter. Here's what the computer says: Bears lose by -2.63 just short of -4 , but as you know spread doesn't matter very often. Could very well be that close and we lose by 1 point, but this rivalry has always been one sided. When the Packers come to Chicago they beat the Bears by an average of 13.4 pts. which interestingly is higher than the average number of points they beat the Bears by in Lambo."

#407 Detroit Lions -3 (2.5 units) PUSH +0
over Minnesota (only for -3 buy the hook if needed)

"Matt Stafford and the undefeated Lions riding a six-game winning streak into Minnesota. Stafford has yet to be sacked and has faced just two official QB pressures in two games. Minny likes to roll towards the number one receiver, and Stafford has the discipline, the protection, and the weapons to take them down. Defense looks amazing too; they can get the quick pressure with the front four, and maintaining good short coverage using the linebackers and safeties. McNabb and the Vikings are going to have quick a day with these Lions. McNabb is going to need to somehow throw the ball deep to extend the coverage. Don't think so."

#400 New Orleans Saints -4 (2.5 units) WINNER! +1
over Houston

"Houston just rebuilt their secondary and this game will be a test for them. They've faced Kerry Collins' Colts and Miami. Drew Brees and his Saints will keep on marching here and certainly test that secondary today. Brees just picked the Bears apart a very good Chicago defense on Sunday (270 yards, 3 TDs); made the Bears look awful. It’s clear to me now that the injuries to his receiving corps won’t affect him. Certain teams are on fire..I think Brees and the Saints are about to light up.

Some trends…
Texans are 9-27 ATS when they allow 22 to 28 points since 1992. Arian Foster may not be in this one (doesn't matter, but would help). Saints are 42-62 ATS as a home favorite since 1992. Home favorites who outscored opponents by four or more points per game the previous season and scored 30-plus points in their previous game are 35-9 ATS since 1983. Love the Saints momentum going into this one."

7 PT Teaser: 
DET +4 with NOR +3
 (1.5 units) WINNER! +1.5



CFL went 2-0 on Sunday and NCAAF Saturday went: 13-5-0 losses +10.5 units

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