A Guide To Passing

I’m going to keep this article concise. In my time advising sports bets to my readers at 9AM-12noon I’ve learned a few things:
1. This is usually too early to make a call.
2. Better to place your bet later in the day after you’ve considered a much greater deal of information.

Note: It has been my policy for over 5 years to release bets before Noon CST and that won’t change. If I didn’t do that, a good portion of my subscribers would literally not be able to place wagers. So the job falls upon you, if you so choose to take my official selections as well as my robust set of leans and follow the set of filters I’m going to give you here that apply to all sports.

Also Note: Passing is the most important thing you can do. It is what will set you apart from Joe Gambler over the course of many years. The opposite of passing is forcing plays for the sake of having action; by contrast, this is the very worst thing you can do! Always take my leans and only ever do one thing: wittle them down, pass, rule things out.

Here is a list of filters I’d like you all to consider:

1. Systems and Trends via Killersports – I send out systems every day. Sometimes 3 or more of them. Bookmark these! Or better yet, for just $30 you can login and see what systems and trends of mine are active for a bet in under 5 minutes. Never go against a system or trend I have in the Killersports database. Here is our PCG discount link: http://killersports.com/trend_mart?discount_code=PCG_yH6zz2&store=PCG – It is highly recommended that you have this tool in your betting arsenal.

2. Smart Money – Wait on bets late to see if you’re on the opposite side of raw money. Here is exactly what you want to look for. Go to a site like SBRodds or Sports book spy where you’re given the # of bets on a matchup. If the public is heavy on one said and the line is moving the opposite way, make absolutely sure you’re fading the public / tailing the sharp money. The longer you wait before gametime, the more info you’ll have available to do this.

See RLM / Smart money info below at the end of the page.

3. Injuries / Suspension / Status Updates – Watch late for key personnel getting taken off the list of players for this game. In College sports this is crucial. It happens so often that a key player will get suspended or arrested or injured right before gametime. The books will still count your bet as a loss.
A good and easy way to do this is to look for the ‘(!)’ on this list for key players http://www.statfox.com/mlb/injuries.asp

4. Weather – Weather is hard to use as a predictor. The main thing it works well with are Unders in outdoor sports. Generally, ANY windy conditions tend to be good for the under. In MLB, you want to watch out for strong winds pointed towards the outfield prior to gametime. A good thing to do is to call the park 10 minutes before the last call for bets.

5. Reverse Line Movement – Bottom line: If the public is all on one side all throughout the day, yet the line is moving in the reverse direction; you have RLM (Reverse line movement). You usually want to be on the right side of this (fading the public) and pass when you’re on the ‘sucker side’. Some people base their entire betting careers on following the big money and fading the public.
Step one: Go to a site like http://pregame.com/sportsbook_spy/default.aspx or http://sbrodds.com which gives you a number of bets per match up and % towards each side. Sportsinsights also works, but costs money.
Step two: Make sure you’re looking later in the day when ‘Bet#” has over about 1000 bets in and see where the public is betting.
Step three: Now you want to see where the MONEY is going; that is, which way has the line moved, in theory, in response to the biggest money. Go to www.sbrodds.com to see line history. A move from -150 to -125 with the public bets heavy on the favorite would mean you should be looking at the underdog.
An Example: St. Louis (current line -105) vs. White Sox. Line opened at -125 for the Cardinals let’s say.
It is a couple hours before gametime and you are seeing around 80% to 85% of the public bets going heavy for the St. Louis Cardinals, but then looking over at sbrodds line history, why did the line go from -125 at one point for the Cardinals to -105? Pass on the Cardinals in this case and only consider the White Sox.
6. If it just seems too good to be true, it probably is. Be wary of a line that looks and feels really good and like good value at first glance. Always remember, since the 70’s and 80’s, the best bets have always been the contrarian ones that turn your gut into a knot. The road less traveled is the key to higher roi.

 

 

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