Another NFL TOP PLAY WINNER!
|Houston||–||1:00 PM ET||Baltimore +1 +115||2.40|
TOP PLAY THOUGHTS:
You could either take the +1 and the dog odds on this spread or grab the +2.5 points. That is oddly all I’m seeing out there. I’m going to take the odds as we have this one projected to go:
BALTIMORE 28.5 to TEXANS 19.4
Adjusting to common team totals that should be more like:
BALTIMORE 27 to TEXANS 20
Far less than half of the public bets are on the home dog here, and each team is littered with injuries. Key injuries wide receiver Andre Johnson for the Texans and Ray Rice on the Ravens. Lots of questionables for Sunday for Baltimore. I think they’re going to get up and try to prove that they’re still a legitimate post playoff team here with the vast majority of the public against them here. This home dog line compares Baltimore a half point worse than Tennessee (Houston’s last opponent); that seems odd as most would agree Baltimore is clearly better.
*Since 2000, the Ravens are 18-7-0 72% SU and 58.3% ATS after playing the Browns.
**That’s 13-3-0 (81.2%) SU when they only put up 25 points or less.
We always keep an eye on the games after these low scoring tough division battles particularly in the AFC South. What always seems to happen is that the public will doubt the offenses heavily the next week. That is what you’re hearing now about the Ravens….things along the lines of “this should be a good game but look at how the Raven offense stinks.”
KEY SYSTEM FOR BALTIMORE:
*Since 2004, teams off of a TD or less win (tight margin) where the opponent scored 6 points or fewer are 26-9-0 (+5.74 ppg, 74.3%) SU and beating expectations 25-9-1 73.5% ATS.
One of the big reasons I’m not trusting the Texans here is because they went all in last week and got a win in overtime and racked up the injuries. Now they have to travel to Baltimore in an early game. Most teams struggle in this sort of position. Every minute of rest matters, and people do not appreciate how draining an OT can be on a team.