NCAAB ATS SYSTEM (#001 – CBB) 2.5.2012
Play against a Home Favorite of -10 points or more heavily inflated by the fact that they’ve covered 4, 5, or 6 of their last six games’ spreads and they have a 40% to 70% better team record. This is a big time nose pincher that produces a lot contrarian value for the road dog. In Database history, this road dog is 153-91-5 (2.55, 62.7%)!
SDQL TEXT: “Sum(o:ats margin > 0@o:team and o:season and o:season = o:season, N=6) > 3 and AD and line >= 10 and 0.7 > (o:wins / (o:wins + o:losses)) – (wins / (wins + losses)) > 0.4”
RECORD: ATS 153-91-5 (2.55, 62.7%)
NCAAB ATS SYSTEM (#002 – CBB) 2.7.2012
Take a double digit road dog who just got blown out 15 points or more as a favorite. Very simple, very sweet; this is a 67% ATS winner.
SDQL TEXT: “AD and line>=10 and p:margin<=-15 and p:F”
RECORD: ATS: 42-21-0 (1.97, 66.7%)
NCAAB ATS SYSTEM (#003 – CBB) 2.7.2012
Take a road favorite who just won a game now playing an opponent who just lost as a 6 point or more favorite. This is a 64% ATS winner in database history.
SDQL TEXT: “A and line<0 and op:L and op:line<=-6 and p:W”
RECORD: ATS: 57-32-2 (1.64, 64.0%)
NCAAB ATS SYSTEM (#004 – CBB) 2.7.2012
Take a road dog for +10 or more points off of little rest (1 day or no days) in the month of February. In database history this road dog says, “not done yet,” and pulls through for 133-75-9 (2.13, 63.9% ATS).
SDQL TEXT: “AD and line>=10 and rest<=1 and month=2”
RECORD: ATS: 134-75-9 (2.16, 64.1%)
NCAAB UNDER SYSTEM (#005 – CBB) 2.14.2012
Take the Under when you have a team on the road than just lost as a 12 point or more home favorite in the month of February. In database history this road team keeps the score low: UNDER – 31-7-0 (10.63, 81.6%).
SDQL TEXT: “A and p:LHF and month=2 and p:line<=-12”
RECORD: UO: 31-7-0 (10.63, 81.6%)
NCAAB ATS SYSTEM (#006 – CBB) 2.14.2012
Something we like to see in teams is effort. Let outperforming the expected number of points set by Vegas be a mark of good team effort. So win or lose, we have a home favorite who has outperformed Over/Under expectations by a sum of 48 points in their last 7 games. Why seven? If we look at a full week we can lower the chances of inflated points being caused by just a more recent opponent (in which case we would want to focus on that team). A home favorite for -3 to -10 points is a modest range, and a team win percent between 60% and 51% (marginal winning team still contending). This modest favorite is what we call a “true favorite” and we recommend playing this team for a modest amount.
SDQL TEXT: “HF and -10<line<-3 and p:ou margin+pp:ou margin+ppp:ou margin+pppp:ou margin+ppppp:ou margin+pppppp:ou margin+ppppppp:ou margin>=48 and .60>=(wins/(wins+losses))>=.51”
RECORD: ATS: 73-39-1 (3.32, 65.2%)
NCAAB ATS SYSTEM (#007 – CBB) 2.14.2012