Has The NFL Finally Achieved Parity?
From My Newsletter:
Split the Top plays last week 1-1 (so 4-1 now since week 4; when I said to start betting). The Seahawks cashed by a mile like all 3 top plays before it, but Philly seems like it was called wrong. Looking back, maybe it should have been a runner up as it was 90% a technical play. With the Seahawks, we had the added angle that, if they lost, there would be no chance to make the playoffs this season and the 49ers were easy pickin’s
The Eagles bet made me feel stupid, but the Colts bet did much more. I almost made Colts -4 a top play, but most of you know since I made the Saints’ Super Bowl call several years ago, Drew Brees has been the #1 qb in the league I am always personally rooting for. Big fan of Sean Payton as well (and I hated that they banned him for a year for bounty gate). So that is what held me back from making the Colts a top play even though so many systems and technical RN notes added up…
…but here is why I really feel stupid about making the Colts play more than 1 unit: I feel like Karma bit me in the ass for talking smack about Rob and Rex each week. I still don’t like Rob Ryan, but my god did he buck up last week. I thought he’d come out flat on a high, but not at all. He limited one of the elite qbs (yes, Andrew Luck) to zero points until later in the second half. However that happened, I refuse to say that was Rob Ryan’s doing lol. Kidding aside, the Saints are maybe a team to be avoided completely. They seem to be playing like a team possessed, but then again, they have a bi-polar defense. My suspicion is that the Saints organization threatened Rob Ryan to pick it up or else they’d sack him (hence the scolding you’d see every game from Payton). I could see him beginning to figure it out permanently for the on-going Saints’ future. I could go on a whole lot more than this, but I know you want the plays.
Anyways, the question you have to ask on games like those is: Would you bet it again? The answer for me is yes, but perhaps for less on the Colts -4 because I let in a little bit of personal bias. Prior to the Panthers getting to 6-0, the line was much tighter for the Eagles/Panthers game. Always value in the week to week overreaction lines (advantage Eagles). As for the Colts, it really seemed like the perfect set up: you have a bad defensive coordinator snapping a bad streak at home now a road dog. Then again, Drew Brees is 25-19-1 ATS as a dog / 19-10 ATS (65.5%) playing at a new site….a stat I maybe should have taken a little more seriously.
That’s enough bashing myself: How ’bout them Raiders?! They were beating San Diego in their own playground 37-6 up until the very end when the Chargers went for the backdoor forgetting that they were the Favorite scoring 23 pad-the-stats points in the 4th quarter…never a good idea. Good coaches know being underrated is good because you’ll catch a team off guard next week; by the same token, I have to ask: is Del Rio the real deal? Beaten down for so many years and cast away into the muck only to dredge himself out beautifully. Good story going on there.
Last thought: There are no winless teams as of week 6 this season. That’s something that hasn’t happened ONE-SINGLE-TIME since at least 1989: have a look
The NFL has finally achieved parity…which may change everything fyi.