NHL Winner + System (Won as well)
I’ve been logging systems into the database all morning here is one I liked.
I wanted to say why it is good and why it is not the best.
SYSTEM: Sub .500 road dogs off of a conference win as a dog greater than 5 points are 188-138-4 (57.7%) ATS and profitable on the moneyline.
Why it is not the best system I’ve ever given you:
I count 7 parameters. That is sort of a lot. You could actually argue just 2 parameters depending on how you define ‘parameter.’ For example, some people might say conference win as a dog is 3 parameters while some might just consider that as one. Second, Logic? I think the logic is here, but you can’t be positive.
Why it is a GOOD / VIABLE system (there are definitely more pros with this one):
1. Logic: A team just won an important, difficult game as a medium to large sized underdog. They proved everyone wrong. They’ll get a boost of steam while everyone will be thinking fluke.
2. The moneyline is profitable, in this case over 70 units at a just 25.2% SU win rate! I like when the moneyline is profitable AS WELL AS the spread.
3. 330 game sample
4. +2.77 Z-Score. That is solid. 1 or 1.5 is considered good and 2 is statistically, considered, very possibly NOT the product of pure chance.
5. 7 out of 9 profitting seasons! Not only does this span a large section of CBB history, it wins year in and year out. One year was a marginal loss and the other was way back in 2006. Things have changed since then.
Someone asked me the question:
“Will all of your systems be equal?”
Here’s my answer:
ROUGHLY, YES, they will all be worth the same. Some of them are more valuable, but the overall difference is going to be negligible. I might make a note is one system is an extremely good system. If you’re not sure, you can always ask me, but it is just my OPINION as another statistician. Again tho…
When in doubt, here are the things that I really like to see in a system:
*Simplicity. Few parameters.
*Large sample. I don’t take 5-0, 10-0, systems too seriously.
*Winning seasons to losing seasons.
*Lots of history to support.
*Consistency over seasons.
SYSTEM Today is active on Miami Ohio +13.5 or Miami Ohio +1000
A regular play like any other or a pass.
Systems are only about a third of my overall capping. I’m passing for now. I may come back later and hit Miami if the line moves some more.
TWO TEAM PARLAY WINNER!
#069 Minnesota ML
#064 Montreal ML
(0.5 units to win 1 unit)
*Raw numbers basics for NHL are 118-61 +30.19 Units this season.*
=== EMAIL RECORDS ===
(Last Update 1.26.2014)
NFL 2014: 44-35-2 +11.55 Units
NHL 2014: 36-22-8 +9.43 Units
NBA 2014: 50-34-4 +6.04 Units
NCAABB 2014: 14-22-2 -8 02 Units
RECORDS SINCE APR. 2010:
3870-3467-187 +610.21 Units
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