Response to Reader: MLB ‘Handles’ Betting System
Originally Posted by royboymiami:
Hey Herb Quick Question
After watching the ARZ game where the underdog +100 won SU
and the underhit -8.5
I saw the same exact line for Col v Marlins and I took Colorado +100 and under 8.5 BOTH HIT
Do you ever see underdog lines that are simialr and have the same results at the end of games… I was surprised both underdogs won str8 up and the game went under
Interesting. First thought I have is that it is coicidental, but anything is worth digging into….so long as you lean heavier on seeing most things as variance and not worth betting.
Here’s what I’ve seen:
#1. Since 2004, when the total has been very high (>10), the Underdog has profitted on the blind: 740-944 +23.67 units. Large sample, simple premise; this has to be considered whatever you’re doing.
#2. MLB has ‘handles’; 7 and 9. That is, where the actual scores of games most commonly land. With that said, the total 8.5 is a funny one right under a major handle. 8.5 is also the most commonly lined total (right a bit above 9) in all games since 2004. In those games, the home dog is 386-410 +62.90 units SU when the game went under the total. Perhaps an indication that: when you see that line (8.5) and like the under, maybe take a look at the home dog as well….
I don’t want to lead you down the wrong path there with #2. That might all be hogwash; whereas, I actually think there is something to #1 and believe it might be something worth pursuing…making a system out of one specific (arbirtray let’s say) integral total is a statistical no-no.