Technical Analysis of 2011 Baseball Regular Season Wins – Baseball Futures

Technical Analysis of 2011 Baseball Regular Season Wins – Baseball Futures

Baseball is almost here. To kick it off I'm giving you guys my RSW raw numbers, and a simple guide to play MLB RSW Futures for the 2011 Season. These aren't official bets (well maybe they will be later on after I look things over more carefully). Most of these lines aren't out at my main books anyways, but I figured I'd put this together ahead of time to help you out. I'll give you directions on how I would play these:

Some people are fans of futures and some really just aren't. Generally I am not a fan, to be perfectly honest. Some people like laying a lot down on the big World Series +6000 underdog who they feel is very undervalued; and it is just like taking the lotto. Your chances of winning are so slim but you didn't risk much so OH WELL. Or maybe There is a good argument for tieing your money up for an entire season. Let's say you plan on making about a conservative 5% on your futures bets…well that definitely beats a couple of things. 1. The rate of inflation losing you money while you sit on the couch. 2. Bank interest rates. They are fractional and very pathetic. They are mostly a way for bankers to earn commissions. Right now they are just so useless (but I've heard that they are improving some). Finally tieing you money up for some is a good way of forcing yourself to bet more conservatively and to just save. That is good but it could also be bad. Don't tie up your money and then double up to get the amount you had before back (typical)! Again, if you locked you money away just consider your starting bankroll a lower amount; simple as that. These are just my opinions. I don't claim to be any expert on futures of any kind.

Without further ado I'll show you guys how I would go about picking let's just say our best 10 RSW futures plays. Now I'm not factoring in value here at the beginning which is very imporant. I don't have lines out yet in most of my books. The lines you see here are courtesy of Bookmaker. This is the first step. After you mass a large number of potential bets you basically needs to look over the RSW total for each team, and see if you where you can get the best edge. First, here is my raw data:
 

Team	EXP	Actual	Diff
Pirates	77	57	-20
Mariners	79	61	-18
Royals	79	67	-12
Indians	75	69	-6
D-backs	69	65	-4
Astros	76	76	0
Marlins	79	80	1
Athletics	77	81	4
Tigers	77	81	4
Angels	74	80	6
Mets	72	79	7
Orioles	58	66	8
Cardinals	78	86	8
Blue Jays	76	85	9
Brewers	68	77	9
Cubs	66	75	9
Red Sox	78	89	11
Rockies	71	83	12
White Sox	76	88	12
Giants	77	92	15
Nationals	52	69	17
Phillies	79	97	18
Dodgers	61	80	19
Yankees	75	95	20
Reds	69	91	22
Rangers	63	90	27
Braves	64	91	27
Twins	66	94	28
Padres	56	90	34
Rays	58	96	38
League Avg.	71

Notice it is sorted by the difference of the actual number of season wins a team got in 2010 and my "ProComputerGambler" projection. There are a lot of ways you can think about this, but here is the key point.

The "EXP" figure is designed to give the most honest expectation. I really put a huge emphasis on filtering out FLUKES.

Let's take an example: According to my figures the Rays have perhaps lucked out more than any team. They should get a RSW total much higher than 58, and that would automatically make me want to lean towards the under for them. Obviously you may want to dig into this deeper, but there it is from a strictly numbers point of view…which for the record…I rarely move past.

The Pirates on the other hand would have been expected to win 77, but they only walked off with 57 wins. Auto play on the over there. This all stands to reason if you buy into the law of parity in professional sports. The Pirates did poorly last season, but the bottom line is that they are a professional sports team, and should do better than a lousy 57 wins next season. Or will they? Lets rearrange a few things, and see who gives us the best edges for next season:
 

Team	EXP	Actual	Diff
Rays	58	96	38
Padres	56	90	34
Twins	66	94	28
Braves	64	91	27
Rangers	63	90	27
Reds	69	91	22
Yankees	75	95	20
Pirates	77	57	20
Dodgers	61	80	19
Phillies	79	97	18
Mariners	79	61	18
Nationals	52	69	17
Giants	77	92	15
Royals	79	67	12
White Sox	76	88	12
Rockies	71	83	12
Red Sox	78	89	11
Cubs	66	75	9
Brewers	68	77	9
Blue Jays	76	85	9
Cardinals	78	86	8
Orioles	58	66	8
Mets	72	79	7
Indians	75	69	6
Angels	74	80	6
Tigers	77	81	4
Athletics	77	81	4
D-backs	69	65	4
Marlins	79	80	1
Astros	76	76	0
League Avg.	71	AVG	14

In this re-sort, I am looking at the absolute value of the difference and sorting from highest to lowest. Personally I would like to consider about 13 or more teams surrounding the average difference of all teams. Some of you might disagree, and you might be right: why not only look at the teams from the very top and down. Good question: It could work, but I think the idea in general is good and I would rather stay away from teams that may carry some motivation from last season over to this one. We can do it both ways though:
 

Team	EXP	Actual	Diff	LINE	EXP	EDGE	PLAY
Rays	58	96	38	85	58	27	UNDER
Rangers	63	90	27	87.5	63	25	UNDER
Braves	64	91	27	88	64	24	UNDER
Dodgers	61	80	19	82.5	61	22	UNDER
Twins	66	94	28	86.5	66	20	UNDER
Nationals	52	69	17	72	52	20	UNDER
Padres	56	90	34	76	56	20	UNDER
Phillies	79	97	18	96.5	79	18	UNDER
Yankees	75	95	20	91.5	75	17	UNDER
Reds	69	91	22	86	69	17	UNDER
Brewers	68	77	9	85	68	17	UNDER
Rockies	71	83	12	87	71	16	UNDER
Cubs	66	75	9	81.5	66	16	UNDER
Giants	77	92	15	88	77	11	UNDER
Pirates	77	57	20	66.5	77	11	OVER
Royals	79	67	12	69.5	79	10	OVER
White Sox	76	88	12	85.5	76	9	UNDER
Mariners	79	61	18	70	79	9	OVER
Red Sox	78	89	11	86	78	8	UNDER

There you have it. As you can see, the computer model is a big fan of the under, and so am I generally. People really over react to things, and they love to bet a team to do something for them. Consider this about the under wager: the moment you place it you are a winner. I would much rather take the under on most wagers. In fact, I believe if you were to have bet nothing but the under in 2009 you would have done better than just about everyone betting whatever. The under was about average last year, but the old timers I've talked too will all agree. The under just has more inherent value…same goes for taking the underdog.

Now I said that I was going to come up with my top 10 best selections for futures. I might amend this at a later date. This is nothing official, but if I had to play it right now here would be my plays, in order of strength:
 

Take Each of the for 1 unit a piece:

Team	LINE	PLAY
Rays	85	UNDER
Rangers	87.5	UNDER
Braves	88	UNDER
Pirates	66.5	OVER
Royals	69.5	OVER
Mariners	70	OVER
Dodgers	82.5	UNDER
Twins	86.5	UNDER
Nationals	72	UNDER
Padres	76	UNDER
Phillies	96.5	UNDER
Yankees	91.5	UNDER
Reds	86	UNDER
Brewers	85	UNDER
Rockies	87	UNDER
Cubs	81.5	UNDER
Giants	88	UNDER
White Sox	85.5	UNDER
Red Sox	86	UNDER