Update: MLB playoffs
Posted at: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101411669&page=65
Not much action lately in MLB playoffs…course there never really is for me.
I know it is an MLB thread, but thought I’d share a somewhat relevant insight: Why it is relevant? Because, in the first place, betting dogs in September revolves around this concept where, as I see it, the $$$ in sports betting and most markets where human sentiment is involved and human error is the thing most capitalized on, doing the opositite of the public, a wise man once told me: you could make a career out of…and that’s it. Don’t overthink that he said or else you start thinking square like the rest.
It isn’t that the public is dumb….in fact I honestly believe…but it is only because they’re usually bigger sports fans than me, that ‘the public’ is probably the #1 best handicapper of games. But do they understand the investing qualities such as finding value and pinching your nose….going against your sports fan convictions as they’re generally unrelated to making money and often used against you? Or do they have the discipline to do that nose pinching and placing bets that twist their guts and make them feel unwise and uncomfortable and deal with a sub .500 win percent day to day? Usually no: And this is, I believe, why Vegas and Bookmakers even exist in the very first place.
And what I like so much about any business endeavor I make the decision to delve into is: sustainability.
There are many ways to skin the cat, and I do believe that going with the grain and being the best you can be and keeping the best tabs and listening to all the ESPN stuffed suits have to say: if you stick to your guns and make a system out of that and are able to leave day to day emotions a non-factor, then you’ve got money in the bank. Hard work does indeed pay off.
But, and I am not honestly sure, but just guessing on this part: I doubt that the hard work, not factoring value against the public into your equation, hardcore sports fan approach works in the long term. And to me, being a bit older now and thinking about long term goals and thinking about all of you (who I do love and have a desire to see do well and take something out of what I’m doing)….
….I recall what some (not going to name names because it isn’t relevant in this case I don’t think) very well accomplished older guy, big shot…but very wise CEO of a large company had to say in a Forbes interview:
He was asked, what would you like to pass on as a final thought to young folks trying to start a business of their own as you did and you had a lot of success. What was the most important one or two things you don’t regret?
The man answered, and it is something I remind myself of very often: “The best company will never ever assume that, the way they feel now: enthusiastic, proactive, willing to work all nighters because they love their young creation and see big potential….they’re always going to burn out. UNLESS….they have a system. A system that does not rely on waking up every morning and being in the mood you were in yesterday.
It is a human trait to have a mood one day, and react to negative news, by and large, with a decreased morale and good news with a proactive desire to continue forward enthusiasticly.
But to assume that, any one of us is some kind of machine that wakes up each day the same exact way with the same motivation and energy, no matter the age (well and it is also a delusion that you’ll never get old) is highly unwise.
Rather, a system is the way to go.
And specifically: a system that is automated as much as possible….NOT BY YOU…or your employees, but by some mechanism that you 100% know will never ever have ebb and flow moods….will never catch a cold and get sick…never get a little depressed and make a human error.
Do this and you’ve done more than half the battle and are on your way to bigger and much more real LONG TERM success which you can compound.
Why long term success is > flash in the pan explosive successs?
That’s another animal…I hope most of you understand why the former is much more valuable, but a topic for another time.
To summarize, September is when people direct their attentions to NFL and we have a lot more exploits and ‘soft lines’ in MLB.
But now we have the playoffs so we just do the same thing: direct attention to the soft lines where we have a plethora of non-marquee exploits: NHL right now is perfect. Not many ever realize it started. Soft lines. Go get em.
I know you all want me to make an NFL thread or an NHL thread, and I may, but I’d like to see you guys do that. PM me for systems if you need. You can cite me as the source if you want, but try and apply the bigger concepts. Look for slow growth. Ignore the guys that pop into the thread and belittle what we’ve done because it took years. Those guys probably have nothing to boast of that beats it. Gambling is hard….slow, long term, under the radar, steady growth and a system that doesn’t eat up all of your time = a solid, low effort side biz you hardly ever even think about.