3-1 Today in MLB – Check out the Writeup

Note: Over at our new forum, www.statwagering.com, we’re having a September contest with a prize for the top poster.
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Today’s Action:
7:05PM Atlanta Braves (M. Wisler) vs Washington Nationals (J. Zimmermann)

Washington Nationals -240
1.25 units (Best Bet)
7:20PM Pittsburgh Pirates (F. Liriano) vs Milwaukee Brewers (T. Jungmann)

Milwaukee Brewers +143
1 unit
8:10PM Detroit Tigers (M. Boyd) vs Kansas City Royals (E. Volquez)

OVER 8.5
1 units
8:40PM San Francisco Giants (R. Vogelsong) vs Colorado Rockies (C. Rusin)

San Francisco Giants -123
1.25 units (Best Bet)
*All selections are supported by Raw Number “Basics” or higher
In Washington: Best Bet*
Since 2010, after July’s, very large (over -200) favorites have been money on the blind. Eliminating situations where they just lost and it is the end of a series as well as isolating first and last series games off of a wins brings it to: 175-49 78.1% +58.07 units and +10.8% roi SU.
I consider that a “Trend” and not a “System” as there is a season cut-off. With “Systems”, I want as much data as a starting point as possible. On the other hand, I have recent MLB history on strong watch due to rule changes made recently which seem to have affected the game more than expected.
Another similar trend:
This is active as well on the Giants:
In Colorado: Best Bet*
*Aforementioned trend active.
The Giants check in very well with the raw numbers which now have recent history and long term history appropriately weighted. Giants check in on multiple systems without any conflicts.
The Giants just got blown up two series so this line is pretty low. A huge dynamic I like to play in ALL sports is a team off of a loss. Think about it; you have two factors going your way:
A. Team is motivated to go 110% to stop the bleeding.
B. The odds are down on them. If they weren’t no one would want to bet them. I’ve debunked the fallacy in the past that books only ever go for even action and eat the vig. Not true; I believe this is a case where the books are making a bet of their own coercing the public to take the dog. You may see RLM on this one.
Anyways, if you don’t believe me; here is a historical situation that back the theory a bit:
Since 2010, marginal (.510 to .540) road favorites off of 2 or more straight losses have gone 92-58 +29.29 units with +16.6% roi SU against bad sub .500 teams. Exactly the same scenario here.
Last thing to consider is who the Giants just lost to: The Dodgers and the Cardinals who, respectively, have .568 and .647 team records. Now they’re facing the Rockies who sit last in their division with a .409 team record.
In Milwaukee:
The big thing here is fading Favorites very close to clinching or clinched late regular season: SYSTEM: Fade plus .600 Favorites at the end of regular season: 218-185 -93.44 units SU +15.5% roi fade. Very simple, very powerful.
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This season, more than any other we’re looking hard at where the value is rather than blindly grinding out big long term systems….which is what I did last year late season and choked….not again this year.
In KC:
On Thursdays, a good team playing a bad team (both marginally); total>7 and post steroid era – OVER is 47-19-4 +26.9 units This one is most definitely a little icing on the cake trend. Overs have torn it up lately and raw numbers are solid on this one.
Best of luck today,
Tom
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=== EMAIL RECORDS ===
(Last Update 9.3.2015)
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CFL 15: 13-8-0 +3.55 Units
MLB 15: 163-152-4 +12.38 Units
NHL 14: 61-37-10 +22.55 Units
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RECORDS SINCE APR. 2010:
4132-3736-195 +636.76 Units
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