4-1 Weekend in NFL…

NFL Top Play Links: Week 1 (W) | Week 2 (W) | Week 3 (W) | Week 4 (W) | Week 5 (W) | Week 6 (L) | Week 7 (W+W)

2014 NFL Top Play Total – 7-1 (87.5%) ATS

Sunday, November 9

San Francisco271:00 PM ETNew Orleans -51.00
New Orleans24  Lost
Denver414:05 PM ETDenver -110.25
Oakland17  WINNER!
Chicago148:30 PM ETGreen Bay -7.50.25
Green Bay55   WINNER!

6pt Teaser: (1 unit) WINNER!
#265 Denver Broncos -5
#272 Green Bay Packers -1.5

Thoughts: Last week we didn’t like anything for a big amount, but went 2-1 on sides and lost the adjusted teaser; however, if you got on the first teaser (when Arizona was at +4 before the Romo news) you went 3-1 which I know many of you did. We’re not recording that though. The Chargers were way off, but like I said on that one, other than the raw numbers, I don’t see a lot of angles and don’t like the game a ton. San Diego had to travel across a big time zone. That is something we usually don’t want to back heavily. As for the Patriots: They killed is as home dogs for the second time this season. The public caught onto the trend on that one, and were mostly (with us) on the New England Patriots who ended up smoking Peyton Manning and the Broncos. I’m not really sure how the books did on this one (profit or loss). Then on Monday, the Colts smoked the Giants as predicted for our second winner of last week. I’ve been convinced for a while that Andrew Luck will become an elite QB in the NFL if he isn’t already widely considered one. He’s smart, aggressive, quick decisive, studious. Can’t say enough good things about him. If we ever bet the Colts again, my confidence will be high if he is at the helm. Colts are 6-3 in the AFC South. There is a 95.2% chance already that they make the playoffs.

Monday, November 10

Carolina218:30 PM ETPhiladelphia -61.00
Philadelphia45    WINNER!
Another week of small / regular bets and NO TOP PLAY. A bunch of favorites and big lumber on one of these which you know I hate…I am going to keep the write up shorter this week as we have 4 favorites all sure to move against us as I speak. So place the bets as soon as you get this. No waiting until game time. If you can’t get these lines or something reasonably close, just pass (as always).
In Oakland:
This is a square play I know it, but the raw numbers are incredibly strong here (+8.7 raw number edge on the spread). Take the side small or pass and tease Denver for 6 points.
First of all, I want to say why I don’t think you should go heavy on what would appear to be the best play as far as raw number edge goes (we’re 

SYSTEM: Since 1989, teams with ZERO wins are 48-17-3 (73.4%) ATS (24-44 SU) after week 8.

Again, this system is a powerful one and goes for Oakland which is why I like a pass on the side or very small and Denver in a teaser instead.
We’re projecting about a 40-20 final blowout score; Broncos winning of course. Expect Oakland to be rabid again for their first win though trying desperately to at least keep this one close. Oakland will get a win at some point, and normally I would just pass here, but I like the situation for Peyton Manning and the Broncos almost more than I would like that system for Oakland. Peyton Manning is coming off of another defeat in New England: Last time Manning and the Broncos lost in New England (as road favorites by the way) they came back and SMACKED the Tennessee Titans 51-28 in their next game at home as -13.5 point favorites. I expect about the same thing to happen.
In Green Bay:
Raw numbers are strong here as well predicting a final 35-23 outcome for the Packers. We’ve seen Green Bay own better Bear’s teams than this so many times now.
Gotta be the dumbest injury I’ve ever seen. Lamarr Houston hurts himself after celebrating a sack and he’ll be gone for the Bears.
This is a division game though, I see the best value in taking Green Bay in a 6 or 6.5 point teaser.
In New Orleans:
Philly and New Orleans both qualify by this system, and might make for a pretty good teaser of their own….so consider that.
SYSTEM: Since 1989, home teams <+1.5 with better third down percentages on BOTH offense and defense are 534-201-2(+7.64 ppg, 72.7%) SU.
That is massive. If you’re in a survivor pool consider the Bengals, Cardinals, Saints or Eagles this week. These might go 4-0….we’ll see.
I like this play. The public has been so incredibly wrong about the 49ers this year and last year as well. After losing the superbowl they’ve just been flacid. We’re projecting a big 30-18 point win for the home favorite here…
Reference (By Occurrence)….

Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31

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