6-1 Now On NFL Top Plays

NFL Top Play Links: Week 1 (W) | Week 2 (W) | Week 3 (W) | Week 4 (W) | Week 5 (W) | Week 6 (L)

Sunday, October 26

Minnesota191:00 PM ETMinnesota +3*2.00
Tampa Bay13   (Top Play) WINNER!
Green Bay8:30 PM ETNew Orleans -1.52.00
New Orleans   (Top Play) Pending…

Very rarely does it happen, but we have two top plays this week. I guess we’re making up for not having one from last week…

In Tampa Bay (Top Play):
We’ve got the Buccs ranked 30th in the league. The Minnesota Vikings aren’t a ton better, but the difference is the schedule they’ve had.
Here’s who the Vikings have played: New England must win for NE), New Orleans (must win for NOR), Green Bay, Detroit, Buffalo (who are better than people think).
Here’s who the Buccs have played: Carolina, St. Louis, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New Orleans….mostly garbage teams and they’re only 1-5. At least Minnesota got 2 wins.
Since 2003, teams get undervalued if they play two consecutive road games in the second one (or more): going 471-359-20 (56.7%) ATS. That is a huge thing to pinwheel selections off of or use as a filter. I definately recommend keeping this one in your back pocket. Teams to consider or not bet against this weekend under this system include: Vikings, Dolphins, Seahawks, Texans. All with modest lines…
Also, the Vikings are off of what many people think is a disheveling loss. How can you pick yourself up after a 1 point loss? Well, it turns out that since 1990, road dogs off of a 1 point loss on the road are 15-15 SU and 20-10-0 (66.7%) ATS.
*The Tampa Bay Bucc’s are just 14-29 (-5.56 ppg, 32.6%) SU and 13-29-1 (31%) ATS since 2009 at home.
*The Vikings are 12-0 ATS as a dog the week after a road game in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average and committed fewer than five turnovers.
SYSTEM 2: Since 1989, +4 to -4 pt. Home teams that just allowed over 28 points last game are just 31-57-4 (35.2%) ATS in the following week against teams off close losses (1,2 or 3 points).
I love this play. Lots of things add up and it is our second biggest raw number selection. Really, this week, we’re just grinding out the big edges as we always should and filtering down the big marquee Thursday game. The rest is borderline fluff! One thing that scares me about this bet is that the Buccs are home favorites off of a bye week. That is a system in itself….as I’ve said before though, no bet is perfect. Up next….
In New Orleans (Top Play):
Saints in the dome again now with a single point. Man this is an auto bet, but there are so many more reasons to love the Saints here….namely, they are the TOP Raw Number Pick of the week.
This is really similar to the Patriots top play we had a few weeks back: The Patriots were desperate, backed into a corner and forced to show up for the home crowd. All kinds of bad things happen when teams lose games like this one. Drew Brees is an incredibly smart player and he is going to rally his team around the idea that, if we don’t win this one, this season is going to get a whole lot harder than it has already been.
Only 20% of the bets or fewer are on the Saints here which I find shocking. The Saints have made mistakes this season, but it hasn’t been the kind of stuff that makes them a truly bad team.
*Common Power rankings (such as Sagarin) still have the Saints in the Top 15 teams of the league…and they’re 2-4! They’ve even had what would seem to be a fairly easy strength of schedule. I know 6 games feels like a lot, but I say, the Saints are just being slow starters and get back to .500 soon.
*Green Bay looks unstoppable right now, but I think, like the Broncos, they’re riding high and may not take this game seriously enough. The Dome is an incredibly hard place to play….although if you just relax, that tends to help things. Green Bay lost to two good teams : Seattle and Detroit and then went on to beat a whole bunch of lower tier teams. This will be their most difficult game in a while.
**The Saints are 12-0 SU and 12-0 ATS since 2008 as favorites off of a loss as an underdog.
**They’re 25-4-0 SU and 23-5-1 (82.1%) ATS since October 31st, 2010 as home favorites.

*The Packers are 0-12 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick when they were up at the half and won by more than a TD last week.

Like I said, riding high….
*The Saints are 2-4 but they’ve only had 2 home games so far this season….they’ve won both of them.
*Sean Payton and Drew Brees are 16-4-0 SU +13.8 ppg, and 16-4-0 ATS (80%) with the Saints after a 1 to 6 point close loss.
Good luck on these three. You can pass on the Chargers and just take the Vikings and/or Saints if you’d like…..or if you want to take more you can check out the raw numbers for some other interesting strong leans that we passed on here: http://www.procomputergambler.com/nfl/ 
Reference (By Occurrence)….

Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31

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