7-2 On Top NFL Plays

NFL Top Play Links: Wk 1 (W) | Wk 2 (W) | Wk 3 (W) | Wk 4 (W) | Wk 5 (W) | Wk 6 (L) | Wk 7 (W+W)

2014 NFL Top Play Total – 7-1 (87.5%) ATS
NFL 2014 WEEK 11 RAW NUMBERS

Sunday, November 16

GameResultStatusPickAmount
New EnglandLost1:00 PM ETIndianapolis -32.00
Indianapolis (Top Play)

“…this is a spot I’ve been waiting for. Here are a couple things I’ve said in past emails:

1. I had said, Next time I see the fraud Patriots play a legit team in a tough spot I’m fading them.
2. I also said, Andrew Luck is going to be an elite NFL quarterback if he isn’t already. I have faith and like my money behind him.
I’ll put my money where my mouth is now. The key thing is that I’ve been anticipating the Patriots getting exposed as something much less than the public perceives them to be right now….which is ‘extremely elite’. Maybe I’ve just been bitter since week six where the refs along with Orton gifted the Patriots an easy win over our top play on the Bills +3. The Colts are poised to expose the Patriots and really define who is who.
***The Colts are better than the Patriots. First off here is one factual system that I talk about all of the time:
1. Since 1989, home teams (< +1.5 line) with better 3rd down percentages on OFFENSE AND DEFENSE are an incredible 536-203-2 (+7.62 ppg, 72.5%) SU.
I really don’t think anyone has any clue that the Colts are this much better in this crucial area. Furthermore, I don’t think the “semi pro suckers” even realize how important 3rd down performance really is…
2. The Colts have had nearly a 30% more difficult strength of schedule than the Patriots. One of the Colt’s losses was in Denver. *The Broncos are 18-1 (+17.53, 94.7%) SU since Sept. 30th, 2012 at home. Colts also lost to the Steelers who just surged out of no where. No one saw that coming, but I loved how the Colts came right back and their defense AND offense both bucked up proving that the Steeler loss was a fluke. The Patriots on the other hand lost to a team very similar to the Colts: the Kansas City Chiefs 14-41 early on and had very little class about that. Brady discussed leaving the Patriots. There was discord. The Colts aren’t like that from what I’ve seen. So now after wins against the overrated Bengals, the piss poor Jets, one of the worst Bears teams of all time the Patriots are riding high on a haggle horse. They won’t see the Colts coming here especially after knocking off the top tier Broncos at home….which is one of those things I always mention that makes no bet perfect. That was legit I’ll admit. The Patriots were a bet there for us as home dogs, but scroll back up and read what I have to about top tier MLB starters and QB’s doing so much better at home than they do on the road. The Patriots have an unreal home field advantage which makes thing less impressive on paper.
3. We’ve dissected this game every which way. Guys that come out of Stanford are smart. As I mentioned before, I like Luck a lot. He is smart and if we consider a worst case scenario in this game: the defenses both crap out, Andrew Luck has got the better and smarter offense going right now. A lot of it is the little things, but we’ve got the angles covered. Add to that, if Luck needs a breather, the Patriots are one of the worst defenses in the league against the rush.
This would all make for a strong bet, but there are some other big things going for the Colts to finalize this email which make this one a TOP PLAY:
BYE WEEK SYSTEM: Since 2002, 2 to 12 point regular season home favorites of of a BYE WEEK are 93-30 +8.36 ppg, 75.6% and 75-46-2 (62.0%) ATS prior to week 13.
Chargers, Colts, Redskins this week. Consider all of them if you want to add anything…
RIDIN’ HIGH FADE SYSTEM: Since 1992, plus .500 road teams off of upset wins as home underdogs suck it next game 46-99 SU and 53-86-6 (38.1%) ATS. FADE Patriots.
As always, nothing is a lock and I could be way off on this and the Patriots really are legit, but I’ve been digging way into things here, and I am convinced the the Patriots get a sobering run for their money here. Belichick is a great coach. I actually don’t doubt that he is looking at the same things I’m looking at and probably a whole lot more, but it is hard to convey these perspectives to the whole team when they’re feeling like their one step away from the Super Bowl. I also know that Belichick is the kind of coach that like to see his players get a sobering ass wooping so that the get their heads out of the clouds. I can see that happening as well here. This isn’t a must win game for the Patriots depending on how you look at it, but for the Colts, this one is rather important…”

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