Another 13-5 NCAAF Weekend! (+13.45 units)


Here's what I'm taking for Week Five:

#189 Kentucky +30.5 (3 units) WINNER!
over LSU

This is too many point to give LSU. Kentucky is 3-1 ATS as a double digit dog since 1990 when playing LSU. The SEC has done well and double digit dogs on the road. Have a look at who else has done well there: line>=10 and conference and site and season (Note: remove "season" or define it as "season>YYYY" for more global results). Well in the last three seasons, SEC conference games have gone towards the home favorite more often than not for SU wins, but double digit road dogs are 15-12 ATS. They are 2-25 SU losing by an average of -15.2 points. Computer says Kentucky covers this big spread by 12 points. LSU is #1 on the AP Poll and totally inflated. You'll have to pinch your nose on this one going again the #1 team, but LSU is on a 4-0 run. They are going to play a day game vs. a 2-2 conference opponent with a much more difficult 4-0 Florida team (ranked number #12 on the AP). It is good to ring up the score for the BCS computer, but I can't see LSU putting a ton of effort into this one. Get 31 if you can, but it isn't worth buying the hook.

#132 North Carolina State +10 (3 units) PUSH
over Georgia Tech

The 2-2 North Carolina faces the 4-0 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Minus the Big 12, BCS home dogs of +3 to +10 points off of a loss, facing a team off of 4 or more straight wins are an insane 50-19-1 ATS (72.5%) since 2000. Of the five conferences, the ACC is 4-1 ATS since 2000 and 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS since 2005. Click here. ACC teams have averaged a positive 5 point SU margin, and the other five conferences have kept things tight at -2.2 (covering by an average of 3.9 points). I have NC State to cover by 11.98 points possibly squeaking in a straight up win. 

#173 Hawaii
 +4.5 (3 units) WINNER!
over Louisianna Tech

The Warriors had a rough start losing to UNLV as 21 point favorites. Four fumbles in that game; really flukey turnout because UNLV is possibly the worst team in the league. The was an embarrassing loss for Hawaii who was 10-4 last season (UNLV was 2-11). Hawaii came right back, and pounded their next opponent 56-14, and now sit on 2-2. Louisianna Tech is 1-3 off of a heartbreaking over time beat from Mississippi St. (26-20). A real tight hard fought game. Home teams after tough beats (overtime loss or a 2 point loss) are 2-16 ATS against a team off of a win at home now starting off at least a 2 game road trip. I have Hawaii to cover here by 8 points (SU win). They've got to be fired up over the four fumble loss to UNLV, and I don't see Louisianna Tech being up for this one.

#161 Arizona +12.5 (1.5 units) WINNER!
over Southern California

Arizona comes through as a full 3 unit play, but I'm bumping it down because the are one of those teams (bottom feeder that doesn't cover well). But I've got some good stuff adding up for them so I'll give them a chance. All the way back since 1990, Arizona is 11-2-1 ATS (-4.0 avg SU margin) after only covering the spread in one of their last for games now as a 10 to 21 points dog (Try using the "Sum" summative here). USC is 2-10 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons. This is a bit of revenge for Arizona too. Last he saw Southern California was 11.13.2011 in a game he lost by a field goal (21-24 S. California). Since 2007, Arizona is 3-0 ATS revenging a loss with Southern California. The scores of those games were 13-20 USC in 2007, 10-17 USC in 2008, and 21-17 USC in 2009. They've kept things withing -3.3 points on average. Computer has Arizona to cover the double digit spread by 11 points. USC has a lot of injuries; AZ looks okay. This should be a lot closer than 12.5. 

Runner ups:

#130 Indiana +14.5 (2 units) WINNER!
over Penn State

#113 Minnesota +21* (2 units) LOSE -2.4
over Michigan 

#160 Arkansas +3* (2 units) WINNER!
over Texas A&M 

#203 Memphis +24* (2 units) WINNER!
over Middle Tenn. 

#171 Ball State +40 (2 units) LOSE -2.2
over Oklahoma

*Buy hook if needed; half points only for the key


The Rest:

#139 Kent State +10.5 (1.5 units) WINNER!
over Ohio

#153 Michigan State +3 +105 (1.5 units) WINNER!
over Ohio St.

#143 Nevada +27 (1.5 units) WINNER!
over Boise State


#135 Akron +8.5 (1 unit) WINNER!
over E. Michigan

#137 Cincinnati -14 (0.75 units) WINNER!
over Miami Ohio 
*Buy a full point
 to the key (14)

#125 Buffalo +28.5 (1 unit) LOSE -1.1
over Tennessee

#155 Alabama -4 (1 unit) WINNER!
over Florida

#184 New Mexico -1 +103 (1 unit) LOSE -1
over New Mexico St.

#109 Air Force +3.5 (1 unit) WINNER!
over Navy

#127 Tulane +7 (1 unit) LOSE -1.1
over Army 









13-5-1 +13.45 units

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