Another NFL Top Play Wins!

Sunday, September 14

GameScoreStatusPickAmount
St. Louis194:05 PM ETSt. Louis +6 (Top Play)1.50
Tampa Bay17   WINNER!
Thoughts: Last week we went 2-0 on Official selections (Miami +5 and Oakland +5.5). What I also loved was that the leans I gave out went 4-1 with the Saints being the only loss due to an unlucky fumble in OT vs. Atlanta. If you took them all, you went 6-1 in Week 1.

Still 2-0 in Week 1 is great. Most of the public got hosed as this was a historically excellent week for Vegas. “If the Jaguars would have been able to salt it [the cover] away, it could have been our best day ever,” said Jay Rood, MGM vice president of race and sports. “Giving a little back isn’t a bad thing right now. We don’t want to stick everyone in a corner too much early in the season. Overall, it was a pretty damn good day.”

The biggest game for the books was the Saints vs. Atlanta with the public heavily piled on the Saints who blew it in OT. The Broncos blew a 24-0 lead and the books cleaned up there with the Colts taking the cover. The Browns came back huge against the 7 point favorite Steelers who were leading double digit throughout a major portion of the game; and then of course our Miami Dolphins who were perhaps the upset of the week putting the Patriots in a hole week one. Who saw that one coming? Well….we did and so did the books.

This Week: The public seems to have bucked up a little and is playing things a bit sharper…for example, most of the public is on Jacksonville this week. We’ve got great numbers there, but something stinks about being on what really should be a contrary selection but is not. Our best selection this week appears to be St. Louis for which we have a number of reasons…

Top Play (ST LOUIS RAMS):
This is highly reminiscent of the TJ Yates / Shaub situation a few seasons about in Houston. Reminds us a little of the legend Charlie Batch, taking up the helm of the Steelers team shorthanded Ben Roethlisberger. Teams play 110% by nature in professional sports when all of the public is doubting them and people throw in the towel too early. Less than 25% of the bets are on the Rams this week after losing Sam Bradford. That line is pile driving its way to +7 as we speak.

Usually if we’re touting a Top Play, there is some overreaction involved: the big one in this is that the Rams lost a blowout 34-6 at home vs. the Vikings. Well, a couple of thoughts on that: A. The Vikings are a good team. Don’t forget that they are one of our Top NFL RSW Over futures. B. The Rams lost their QB in the first half vs. this good team. Meanwhile, the Buccs are not at all worth 6 points. They faced a team with a backup QB in week 1 at home and lost, nearly getting shut out. Why are they getting all of these points now? Probably because the score board made it look close.
SYSTEM: Non-Divisional teams that failed to cover the spread by 26 points or more are deemed garbage and too scary of a bet to take next week. They’re 99-60-8 (62.3%) ATS though and 7-4 in Week 2.

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