Free Play – MNF Teaser (Detroit/Chicago)

Bears Tigers Free Pick - MNF Teaser
DETROIT v. CHICAGO – Side and Total :

(1 unit) 6 Pt. Teaser with:
#430 Detroit Lions -0.5 (from the -6.5 spread)
DET Lions | CHI Bears UNDER 53 (from the 47 game total)


The pick for tonight is Detroit. After the win against Carolina, the Bears might come into this one prepared; maybe they'll be okay with the loss after breaking a losing streak. Since 2005, the Lions are 2-10 against the Bears. Since that same season they are 1-5 to the Bears at home. I remember what happened last season: Detroit had a great season, but their very first game seemed to have put them in a foul mood. Detroit was celebrating a win over the Bears in Week 1 of 2010, and the refs came out and pulled Calvin Johnson's TD. The call may have been right, but it didn't cover up how unfortunate it was for the Lions; even Bears fans would tell you: Detroit won that game. After that the Lions were 0-3 until week 6 where they unleashed hell against the Rams (44-6 blowout). Well Detroit is on a roll this year…FINALLY…I don't think there is a team they'd like to beat more than the Bears this year. Maybe I'm wrong, but there certainly should be some tension here. Detroit is 4-0 now having beaten some pretty good teams. Maybe the Bears look a little bit better having beaten Carolina and Atlanta (they're 2-2 now). The Lions are beating teams this season by an average of 14.8 points. The Bears have lost to teams this season by an average of 13.5 points. I like the Lions here 21-14 over the Bears.

I also like the under. Teams get exhausted after a week of Football. If they have a short week they might carry over some injuries or emotional stuff. If things were pretty extreme (like the final ref call on Detroit game 1 in 2010), the team might remember that the next week. Here's something that carries over: Since 2001, the under is 101-74-3 57.7% if the team and their opponent each scored 27 points or more and are both off of wins. This improves linearly the more points the teams put up last week. Last week, the Bears put up 34 and the Lions put up 34. The trend is 24-15-0 (under the total) now for 61.5%. Here is the SDQL link if anyone is interested:

Try typing in "and day" to see how a MNF game goes or try putting in different values where the 27's are to see the linear correlation. MNF games are 13-8 under the total (61.9%). If this one goes under, I don't like all the points for the Lions here. Then again using Monday as you day contradicts the logic a little bit: the most logical way to play this would be to stack big points from last week, and now a short week (so on a Thursday), and results do show the under working out best on Thursday. I have a projected total of 43.73 here, and probably an above average number of injuries so I'll run with it. Small 6 pt. teaser on both of these things. 

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