NCAAF Systems

Take a conference road dog for +3 to +11.5 that just lost as a 10 or more point favorite. In database history this is ATS: 78-29-4 (+3.0 ppg, 72.9%)!

SDQL TEXT: “C and p:L and p:line< =-10 and AD and 12>line>=3”
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This system is focusing specifically on each team’s game #2 of the season off of blowout wins. Under three subsets, in database history this is ATS: 42-8-1 (+8.9 ppg, 84%)!

SDQL TEXT: “( (game number=2 and p:margin>=34 and site==home and p:site=home and -21>line>-28) or (game number=2 and p:margin>=21 and site=away and p:site=away and -35=35 and site=away and p:site=home and op:margin< =-21 and op:site=away) )”
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Three wins meets three losses. Take the +8 or less dog off of the losses. In database history this nose pincher is ATS: 75-39-2 (+2.7 ppg, 65.8%)!

SDQL TEXT: “op:W and opp:W and oppp:W and p:L and pp:L and ppp:L and line<8”
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Take a home dog between +10 and +23 that just won on the road. In database history this is ATS: 38-16-0 (+4.2 ppg, 70.4%)!

SDQL TEXT: “HD and 23>line>10 and p:AW and season>=2004”
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Take the Under bet when the home team is off of 3 or more straight losses, the total line is between 49 and 56.5 and it is the 5th to 10th game of the team’s season. In database history this is O/U: 43-77-3 (-3.5 ppg, 64.2%)!

SDQL TEXT: “H and 56.5>total>49 and p:L and pp:L and ppp:L and 11>game number>=5”
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Take the Under bet in the first half of the season when a team has gotten beat against the spread a total of 42 or more points in their last 5 games. In database history this is O/U: 71-113-5 (-1.6, 61.4%)!

SDQL TEXT: “tS(ats margin,N=5)< =-42 and game number < 9”
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Since 1980, College Football teams that just rolled at least two opponents…both of the wins by at least by 4 TD margin are 61-28-0 (+4.1 ppg, 68.3%) ATS when they face a team that just gave up at least 5 TD’s worth of points.

SDQL TEXT: “A and opo:points>=35 and p:margin>=28 and pp:margin>=28”
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If the line is between +7 and -3, -15 and -8.5, or -25.5 and -28, take a home team off of a home win scoring 46 or more points with a .500 or better win record against a team that just lost on the road. In database history this is ATS: 41-7-0 (+10.7 ppg, 85.4%)!

SDQL TEXT: “p:points>=46 and p:site=site=home and (-3=line>-15 or -26< =line<-28) and p:W and op:site=away and op:L and WP>=50”
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To understand momentum in the NCAAF please read the following article: http://www.procomputergambler.com/the-bottom-line-nfl-mlb-cfb/ ; As you can see from reading this article, it is in a bettor’s interest to snuff out every club that has performed well under good coaching, and good home field advantage. I have done this for you, and compiled a list of best and worst performers be simple three parameter distributions, and the stringing method. We are looking at both clubs and also AQ and non-AQ conferences since momentum does correlate well with average attendance, school tradition, and BCS ranking bias. Next we will look at coaches. The thing that we are going to concentrate on there are coaches that seem to have a good understanding of how the BCS ranking system works. They aren’t necessary passionate or spirited coaches, rather they are often business minded people who know that if they face a tomato can team, you’re going to want to squash it as hard as you can. The computer loves that and you get brownie points for doing this. Some coaches get that while others do not! Here is our SDQL link for schools that I have studied in depth to continue performing well ringing up that score. I’ve also included teams to fade when their line is high for example. Again some coaches understand the system and work for the school while other coaches just care about the moral victory and really never bring home the bowl game. . In database history this is ATS: 208-34-5 (+8.2 ppg, 85.95%)!

SDQL TEXT: “[Compiled SDQL Link]”
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Take a road team off of 2 or more 28 pt + wins against an opponent that just allowed 37 points or more. In database history this is ATS: 33-6-0 (8.2, 84.6%)!

SDQL TEXT: “opo:points>=37 and site==away and tS(margin>=28,N=2)=2 and season>=2002”
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Take a home dog between +10 and +23 that just won on the road. In database history this is ATS: 35-11-0 (5.2), 76%) since 2004!

SDQL TEXT: “site==home and 23>line>10 and p:AW and season>=2004 and day=Saturday”
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Take the under when the total is 44 to 52 after game 4 and before game 9 where the team just covered the spread as a double digit favorite. In database history this is OU: 20-61-4 (-6.0, 75.3%)

SDQL TEXT: “52>=total>=44 and p:ats margin>0 and p:line< =-10 and game number<=8 and o:game number>5”
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Take the under in the first half of the season for a team beat by 40 or more points against the spread in their last 5 games when the total is above 43. In database history this is O/U: 57-104-6 (-2.9 ppg, 64.5%) since 2007.

SDQL TEXT: “Sum(ats margin@team and season,N=5)< =-40 and game number<9 and season>=2007 and total>=43”
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With the total between 49 and 56 take the team off of three or more straight losses in game number 5 to 10. In database history this is O/U: 39-76-3 (-3.9 ppg, 66%).

SDQL TEXT: “site==home and 49 < ‘ total < 56 and p:L and pp:L and ppp:L and 11 > game number > 4 ”
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Fade a team that just lost by 7 or more points as a dog putting up 16 points or less against a road team that just put up less than 14 points. In database history this is ATS: 52-20-3 (7.3).

SDQL TEXT: “op:points< =16 and p:points<14 and site=away and season>=2006 and op:L and total< =58 and op:margin<=-7 and op:D and o:WP<=WP”
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Take the under when a plus .500 road team (game number between 6 and 10) just won by 20 or more points at home. In database history this is O/U: 43-102-4 (-4.9 ppg, 70.3%).

SDQL TEXT: “p:W and p:margin>=20 and 10>game number>6 and season>=2006 and p:H and A and WP>=50 and op:margin>=-45 and total>39”
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Take a +10 to +18 road dog or +3 to +20 home dog off of just one ats cover out of four facing a team that has covered 2 or more of their last three. Since 2004, this is ATS: 123-78-1 (+3.0 ppg, 61.2%).

SDQL TEXT: “Sum(ats margin>0@team and season,N=4)=1 and Sum(o:ats margin>0@o:team and o:season and o:season=o:season,N=3)>=2 and season>=2004 and ((18>=line>10 and site==away) or (20>line>=3 and site=home)) and total>39”
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Take the Under for a road team or a home favorite (nothing bigger than +17 spread) off of a home blowout win by 17 points or more later in the season (game number 7 to 9). Since 2006, this is O/U: 92-170-6 (-3.1, 64.9%).

SDQL TEXT: “p:HW and p:margin>=17 and 10>game number>6 and season>=2006 and (A or HF) and line< =17”
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Fade a -15 or ‘cheaper’ plus .550 team off of a SU loss as a road dog +25 to +0.5 where they covered. The public tends to love the false value on the team here, but we know better. Since 2006, this is ATS: 87-43-4 (4.5, 66.9%).

SDQL TEXT: “op:ats margin>0 and op:AL and op:line<25 and o:WP>55 and season>2000 and o:line>=-15.5”
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Take the Under when a team off of a loss and two or more games where they allowed over 31 points facing a better or equal team off of a worse than 17 point loss. Since 2006, this is O/U: 24-65-0 (-6.2, 73%).

SDQL TEXT: “po:points>31 and ppo:points>31 and op:L and p:L and op:margin< =-17 and season>2005 and WP< =o:WP and total<63”
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Look for a team off of a win (not at home) that put them exactly 1 game above .500 facing a team right on .500 before week 10. Since 1989, this is ATS: 91-40-1 (5.4, 69.5%).

SDQL TEXT: “wins-losses=1 and p:W and game number< =10 and o:wins-o:losses=0 and o:game number<=10 and p:site!=home and -45<line<17 and season>=1989”
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Fade a team that put up a 84 or more points in their last two and allowed 59 points or more against a team that just won by more than 3 points. In database history, this is ATS: 1-29-1 (-15.0).

SDQL TEXT: “game number< =4 and tS(points,N=2)>=84 and tS(o:points,N=2)>=59 and op:margin>3”
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Take home or neutral team between +11 and +30 against a >.600 (Win %) team that just scored 60 to 71 and allowed less that 8 points. In database history, this is ATS: 0-17-0 (-15.47, 0.0%).

SDQL TEXT: “site!=home and F and -30 < line <-11 and WP > 60 and 71>=p:points>=60 and po:points < 8 ”
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Fade Conference favorites between -10 and -16; revenge matchup where this team won by more than a field goal and also just won as home conference dogs in their last. In database history, this is ATS: 5-29-0 (-10.18, 14.7%).

SDQL TEXT: “-10>line>-16 and C and P:margin>3 and p:WH and p:line>=0 and p:C ”
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Fade an undefeated, 5+ wins road favorite winning games by >=21 ppg, scoring <50 ppg and allowing <17 ppg that just covered by 5 or more points now facing a >= .700 opponent. In database history, this is ATS: 4-29-2 (-9.21, 12.1%).

SDQL TEXT: “losses=0 and wins>=5 and tA(margin)>=21 and tA(points)<50 and tA(o:points)<17 and A and 0>=line and p:ats margin>5 and o:WP > =70 ”
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A team +3 and less before game number 9 on longer rest (rest>6) are good fades if their next game is on short rest (rest<6). In database history, this is ATS: 5-23-0 (-7.34, 17.9%).

SDQL TEXT: “A and 3>line and rest>6 and n:rest<6 and game number<9 ”
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