SFO Giants Top Play Wins

If you didn’t watch that Orioles – Royals game yesterday, you must at least watch the highlights. I don’t often watch a baseball game and think, “wow that was pretty cool.” The Royals want this, and I am really appreciating how hard they’re playing and how well. I was predicting the O’s to win the big series this year. I still think they’re that good. Should be a testament to what Kansas City has been able to pull off in these playoffs. Paid off passing yesterday. Again. We’ve only had 1 play in the playoffs that went 1-0. Raw numbers are now 6-3 in the playoffs.
For today, I would say consider the Royals. Like I said, I have rarely seen teams play like this before and it is hard for me to imagine the Orioles making a comeback now with the Royals off of a win playing again at home. On the other hand, everyone else feels that way, and the O’s are now road dogs in a must win spot. Gonzalez looks superior to Vargas here by the numbers, but overall, the Royals have the slight edge. I don’t want to touch this game.
In San Francisco however, we have an official selection:

Wednesday, October 15

St. Louis48:00 PM ETSan Francisco -1011.00
San Francisco6   (Top Play) WINNER!

SYSTEM: Since 2004, home teams -110 to +120 off of a win or road team +140 to +115 off of a win in the playoffs are 53-22 (70.7%, +39.76 units, +52.6% roi) SU. That’s 2-0 +2.1 units this season.

Raw numbers projecting a +2.28 run victory for the home team here.
Those two things are enough for the play. I said that I am being selective though so here’s another thought:
*The Giants are winning this one in every category. They’re slugging better, better OBS, better bullpen, better starting pitcher. Not a whole lot of doubt here for me.
***Under Bruce Bochy the Giants are 28-11 (+1.31 rpg, 71.8%, +22.38 units, +52.4% roi) SU in playoff games. 6-2 at home off of a home win.
*Since August 16 this season, the Giants are 13-2 (86.7%, +10.95 units, +47.8% roi) SU at home after being home favorites.
2-0 on those leans yesterday. Raw numbers went 3-1. They’re 13-3 for the season so far.
Passing today. Boston was looking good, but no raw number support.

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