St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals
*Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals is just 1-8 (-2.0 rpg, -11.9 units) since 2011 in all day games. That’s 6-14 -17.85 units since 2010; however, prior to 2010, Carpenter was 31-14 +8.5 units in day games. Our models like pitchers to regress to either league averages or their own.
*Edwin Jackson is a nasty 5-13 (-0.8 rpg, -11.37 units) with the Washington Nationals (this season). Prior to that he was 41-38 -6.5 units in this spot so -17.87 units combined loss and nothing to really “regress” to.
This is a pass. Raw numbers give the small home favorite the overall edge.