Technical Analysis of 2011 Baseball Regular Season Wins – Baseball Futures

Technical Analysis of 2011 Baseball Regular Season Wins – Baseball Futures

Baseball is almost here. To kick it off I'm giving you guys my RSW raw numbers, and a simple guide to play MLB RSW Futures for the 2011 Season. These aren't official bets (well maybe they will be later on after I look things over more carefully). Most of these lines aren't out at my main books anyways, but I figured I'd put this together ahead of time to help you out. I'll give you directions on how I would play these:

Some people are fans of futures and some really just aren't. Generally I am not a fan, to be perfectly honest. Some people like laying a lot down on the big World Series +6000 underdog who they feel is very undervalued; and it is just like taking the lotto. Your chances of winning are so slim but you didn't risk much so OH WELL. Or maybe There is a good argument for tieing your money up for an entire season. Let's say you plan on making about a conservative 5% on your futures bets…well that definitely beats a couple of things. 1. The rate of inflation losing you money while you sit on the couch. 2. Bank interest rates. They are fractional and very pathetic. They are mostly a way for bankers to earn commissions. Right now they are just so useless (but I've heard that they are improving some). Finally tieing you money up for some is a good way of forcing yourself to bet more conservatively and to just save. That is good but it could also be bad. Don't tie up your money and then double up to get the amount you had before back (typical)! Again, if you locked you money away just consider your starting bankroll a lower amount; simple as that. These are just my opinions. I don't claim to be any expert on futures of any kind.

Without further ado I'll show you guys how I would go about picking let's just say our best 10 RSW futures plays. Now I'm not factoring in value here at the beginning which is very imporant. I don't have lines out yet in most of my books. The lines you see here are courtesy of Bookmaker. This is the first step. After you mass a large number of potential bets you basically needs to look over the RSW total for each team, and see if you where you can get the best edge. First, here is my raw data:
 

TeamEXPActualDiff
Pirates7757-20
Mariners7961-18
Royals7967-12
Indians7569-6
D-backs6965-4
Astros76760
Marlins79801
Athletics77814
Tigers77814
Angels74806
Mets72797
Orioles58668
Cardinals78868
Blue Jays76859
Brewers68779
Cubs66759
Red Sox788911
Rockies718312
White Sox768812
Giants779215
Nationals526917
Phillies799718
Dodgers618019
Yankees759520
Reds699122
Rangers639027
Braves649127
Twins669428
Padres569034
Rays589638
League Avg.71  

Notice it is sorted by the difference of the actual number of season wins a team got in 2010 and my "ProComputerGambler" projection. There are a lot of ways you can think about this, but here is the key point.

The "EXP" figure is designed to give the most honest expectation. I really put a huge emphasis on filtering out FLUKES.

Let's take an example: According to my figures the Rays have perhaps lucked out more than any team. They should get a RSW total much higher than 58, and that would automatically make me want to lean towards the under for them. Obviously you may want to dig into this deeper, but there it is from a strictly numbers point of view…which for the record…I rarely move past.

The Pirates on the other hand would have been expected to win 77, but they only walked off with 57 wins. Auto play on the over there. This all stands to reason if you buy into the law of parity in professional sports. The Pirates did poorly last season, but the bottom line is that they are a professional sports team, and should do better than a lousy 57 wins next season. Or will they? Lets rearrange a few things, and see who gives us the best edges for next season:
 

TeamEXPActualDiff
Rays589638
Padres569034
Twins669428
Braves649127
Rangers639027
Reds699122
Yankees759520
Pirates775720
Dodgers618019
Phillies799718
Mariners796118
Nationals526917
Giants779215
Royals796712
White Sox768812
Rockies718312
Red Sox788911
Cubs66759
Brewers68779
Blue Jays76859
Cardinals78868
Orioles58668
Mets72797
Indians75696
Angels74806
Tigers77814
Athletics77814
D-backs69654
Marlins79801
Astros76760
League Avg.71AVG14

In this re-sort, I am looking at the absolute value of the difference and sorting from highest to lowest. Personally I would like to consider about 13 or more teams surrounding the average difference of all teams. Some of you might disagree, and you might be right: why not only look at the teams from the very top and down. Good question: It could work, but I think the idea in general is good and I would rather stay away from teams that may carry some motivation from last season over to this one. We can do it both ways though:
 

TeamEXPActualDiffLINEEXPEDGEPLAY
Rays589638855827UNDER
Rangers63902787.56325UNDER
Braves649127886424UNDER
Dodgers61801982.56122UNDER
Twins66942886.56620UNDER
Nationals526917725220UNDER
Padres569034765620UNDER
Phillies79971896.57918UNDER
Yankees75952091.57517UNDER
Reds699122866917UNDER
Brewers68779856817UNDER
Rockies718312877116UNDER
Cubs6675981.56616UNDER
Giants779215887711UNDER
Pirates77572066.57711OVER
Royals79671269.57910OVER
White Sox76881285.5769UNDER
Mariners79611870799OVER
Red Sox78891186788UNDER

There you have it. As you can see, the computer model is a big fan of the under, and so am I generally. People really over react to things, and they love to bet a team to do something for them. Consider this about the under wager: the moment you place it you are a winner. I would much rather take the under on most wagers. In fact, I believe if you were to have bet nothing but the under in 2009 you would have done better than just about everyone betting whatever. The under was about average last year, but the old timers I've talked too will all agree. The under just has more inherent value…same goes for taking the underdog.

Now I said that I was going to come up with my top 10 best selections for futures. I might amend this at a later date. This is nothing official, but if I had to play it right now here would be my plays, in order of strength:
 

Take Each of the for 1 unit a piece:

TeamLINEPLAY
Rays85UNDER
Rangers87.5UNDER
Braves88UNDER
Pirates66.5OVER
Royals69.5OVER
Mariners70OVER
Dodgers82.5UNDER
Twins86.5UNDER
Nationals72UNDER
Padres76UNDER
Phillies96.5UNDER
Yankees91.5UNDER
Reds86UNDER
Brewers85UNDER
Rockies87UNDER
Cubs81.5UNDER
Giants88UNDER
White Sox85.5UNDER
Red Sox86UNDER

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