Articles: Betting NFL and NCAAF…

Underdogs in the NFL and College Football – Big difference!

Against The Spread Trends (ATS) – 2011 Season to Date (Covers.com)

CategoryRecordPercent
Away Teams369-375-949.60%
Home Teams375-369-950.40%
Favorites360-384-948.39%
Dogs384-360-951.61%
Away Favorites108-123-346.75%
Away Dogs261-252-650.88%
Home Favorites252-261-649.12%
Home Dogs123-108-353.25%

As many know (or maybe think they know), this year has been the so called year for the square bettor in more than one sport. These figures look about right to me though. NFL seemed odd, and MLB certainly wasn't a real joy. The dog usually returns more on the investment in any given sport, but let me point something out for you: Underdogs in the NFL Since 1989, the dog is 1756-3596-5 SU (32.8%) in NCAAF but for the last five seasons of College Football the market seems to have shifted inverse to the NFL market. Those 32.8% dogs (or better said: 1989 to 2006 dogs were 33.07% SU) have recently been 31.5% SU from 2007 to present. That is a 1.57% linear drop for straight up wins for the College Football dogs. I think that, as it normally goes the books mostly had their way in CFB this season. Keep in mind though, that CFB is a little bit different that other sports where you'll actually have the more uneducated bettor jumping on the dog, blindly going against "the lumber." By now you may have guessed: I am taking some of the lumber this week (I hear it, and don't care). Here are some facts:

2004–present – Controversy and discovered loophole…

In response to the controversy created by the voters in the AP poll naming USC as the No. 1 ranked team at the end of the year,[9] the formula was rewritten. Supporters of USC and the media in general criticized the fact that polls were not weighted more heavily than computer rankings and this criticism led to the new algorithm. – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bowl_Championship_Series#2004.E2.80.93present – Since 2004, some coaches have learned how to trick the system. Guess what the ats record for -35 to -45 point favorites is? From 1989 to 2003 (prior to this BCS algorithm adjustment) it is 139-154-6 (-0.6) 47.4% ATS and prior to that rule adjustment it has been 122-96-3 (0.6) 55.9% ATS. Here is a link to look into this yourself; it is ATS: 115-88-3 56.6% for home teams. A pretty sharp contrast right?            

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