Wild Card Top Plays Win 2-0

NFL Top Play Links: Wk 1 (W) | Wk 2 (W) | Wk 3 (W) | Wk 4 (W) | Wk 5 (W) Week 6 (L) | Wk 7 (W+W) | Wk 11 (L) | Wk 13 (L) | Wk 17 (L)
2014 NFL Top Play Total – 9-4 (69.2%) ATS

NFL 2014 Wild Card RAW NUMBERS
Posted here:  http://www.procomputergambler.com/nfl/ 
Last week: We went for it on fourth and long with Zimmer and the Vikings and missed by just two yards, I mean points. We should have just taken a chip shot and gotten those 2 points; I mean Zimmer taking the 3. Wait a minute. I don’t even know what I’m talking about here; my head is still spinning from that one….story of my season last week; which actually turned out well….somehow. Anyways, the playoffs are here. Congratulations if the team you’re a fan of made it this far. I have some thoughts, but first let’s get the rankings out there. There were a number of teams in this crazy year that were BETTER than another team that actually made it in. Hats off to (in order starting with the best): Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans, 49ers, New Orleans Saints(without Rob Ryan, they’d have made it easily).
PCG Playoff Rankings:
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Denver Broncos (UNDERRATED)
3. Baltimore Ravens (awesome defense getting 25% more sacks / game than Texans)
4. Green Bay Packers (MVP alert; fade if that’s the case)
5. New England Patriots (bumped down)
6. Indianapolis Colts
7. Dallas Cowboys (OVERRATED)
8. Detroit Lions
9. Arizona Cardinals
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (too one dimensional)
11. Cincinnati Bengals
12. Carolina Panthers (WORST)
Note: The two teams that I said are under/over rated are in the position I think they should be (partly) because of that.
Note2: Patriots bumped down because they failed to beat the Bills. The last 3 Super Bowls Belichick has won included blowouts for their last games of regular season. I think the title goes to another team this year.
Note3: The Panthers are terrible. How did they get in? Rob Ryan; that’s how; glad we stopped betting the Saints when I began to realize how bad he is as a leader of the defense and play caller. I choose to poke a stick at Ryan by the way because it is only fair. Brees seems to be the one getting all of the blame and I consider him one of the best all time NFL QBs. Drew Brees is tied for 1st in the league for passing yards this season. With an offense that good and such a meager record it should show you how bad the defense is that they’re working with.
Note4: On this year’s MVP: Important to note that the Texans are just 21st in the league for defensive sacks per game. JJ Watt is the only one pulling them off. My argument is against Watt being the league MVP; I think that an MVP is someone who takes their team to the playoffs. A defensive captain or a leader on offense who rallies everyone around him.
Note5: The Packers would be higher up if it weren’t for Rodgers probably going to be MVP. If he is, I don’t recommend betting the Packers. There is something about a QB MVP I don’t like betting for. Not that it inflates the spread so much as it puts a fat and happy accomplished mindset into the player which isn’t needed or, I think wanted for the good of a team.
Anyways, those are my projected rankings mostly based on Numbers and seasoned with my own personal touch. We’ll see how correct or incorrect I am in roughly a month!
Oh hell, I know you guys want me to predict a Super Bowl winner: Most value is in Baltimore at +4553 odds. 
THE SELECTIONS:
GameScoreStatusPickAmount
Baltimore (W)308:15 PM ETBaltimore +32.00
Pittsburgh17   TOP PLAY WINNER!
Last week, I mentioned that the stuffed suits were against Denver, against Indy, for Houston, against Bills, against Saints, against Buccs. Saints and Buccs cancel out, but if you faded the media last week you went 4-0 and covered by an average of +11.4 points! I’ve always advocated fading the media; they always seem to be wrong, but they never keep track. Course, I’m keeping track and this weekend, the ole stuffed suits don’t like the Bengals, the love the Panthers for some reason, they of course love the Steelers, and now they like the Colts again. Chuck Pagano doesn’t need their advice anymore. Unfortunately, they’ve been speaking highly of the Ravens as well; however, not to the degree they are the Steelers.
*Baltimore picks up some momentum here knocking off the Steelers and takes it far into the playoffs; perhaps to the Super Bowl. That’s my bold call for you…do it 1000 times and you’d be rich.
*Tough division rivalry. My selection (or lean) usually goes to the points for me as the average margin of victory between these two teams since 1996 is just 1.39 points. Just 0.25 since 2002 which is #1 for tightest games in the league since that date. I suggest taking the spread here and forget the moneyline. I got it for +110 odds (we’ll grade it for our usual spread odds though). Most of the public is betting the Steelers and the books are obviously keeping the line from going to -3.5 to keep that Steeler action coming in. Possible trap. Both teams are a bit beat up, but the most significant injury is with Le’Veon Bell who has been downgraded to miss this game now. This is so significant because he is a huge contribution to Big Ben being the leader in the league for passing yards (well tied with Drew Brees): Le’Veon Bell has been the top fantasy RB pick this season. He’s in it almost every play be it a run or a play action with QB Ben Roethlisberger. Having options is what leads to huge yards and wins. The Steeler’s offense lacks options now and the Ravens defense loves sacking as I mentioned before. The Steelers are going to need a lot of luck to get more than 20 points up on the board today. Time for their sub par defense to rally if they want the win here today. And that could absolutely happen, but more than likely the result is where the momentum has been on that end of things.
Due to the massive differential in my power rankings, and how much I believe the Steelers are misunderstood, I’m making this one a Top Play selection.
*Harbaugh is just 3-6 SU though vs. the Steelers when playing them on the road. That holds me back a bit here, but no bet is perfect. Very difficult to play in Pittsburgh in the playoffs. Expect a hard time for the Baltimore offense, but hell; that’s what everyone is thinking on this one and the line is just a stubborn 3 points.
On the other hand, Harbaugh is 17-4 SU after two or more straight losses vs. the spread. Good spot here for the Ravens. Undervalued.
We’ve got a cruising / streaking home favorite facing a non-streaking Ravens team. That is a fade on the Steelers. Classic spot.
RAW NUMBERS PROJECTING:
RAVENS 24 STEELERS 20
Should be close, but we’ve got the 3 points.
Also, consider a bet on Steeler’s team total Under as we have a team the is great at pressuring the QB.
Adding:

GameScoreStatusPickAmount
Detroit204:40 PM ETDetroit +7.52.00
Dallas24   TOP PLAY WINNER!

Alright here it is. Second one for this week is, guess what, a Top Play. So two this week.

Here’s where I have these two teams ranked:
7. Dallas Cowboys (OVERRATED)
8. Detroit Lions
Very close. Here’s why the Cowboys are overrated. Look who they’ve played:
49ers (lost), Titans, Rams, Saints, Texans, Giants, Redskins (lost), Cardinals (lost), Jaguars, Giants (barely won), Eagles, Bears.
Folks, the Cowboys have had the #1 EASIEST SCHEDULE in the NFL. They’re overrated for, at some books -8 points!
…but that seems to happen a lot:
Since 2010, the Dallas Cowboys are 8-23-0 (25.8%) ATS as home favorites. 18-13 SU.
I’m not counting on the Lions to win this one, but I am counting on it to be close.
SYSTEM: Since 2002, road dogs in the playoffs playing their second consecutive road game or more are 32-18-0 (64%) ATS.
The Detroit Lions are being undervalued here. This is based on a much larger system where a team on their second or more straight road game is undervalued at 947-832-46 (53.2%) ATS. Consider the Bengals and Cardinals as well.
RAW NUMBERS PROJECTING:
LIONS 20 COWBOYS 20
Tight game…unless stuff like what happened in the East Carolina game happens…by the way, I have to say: didn’t I call that right? 471 passing yard to 100 something. On paper East Carolina had it by a mile but still somehow managed to lose as per my usual luck.. Alas, 6 turnover in that game. C’mon. Hit the Under despite a plethora of bullshit which I guess I’m thankful for.
Let’s get these two NFL plays. Super rare by the way for me to have two top plays same week and especially rare in the playoffs.

No Replies to "Wild Card Top Plays Win 2-0"