3-1 Day Sweep On NFL Sides
Split the Top plays last week 1-1 (so 4-1 now since week 4; when I said to start betting). The Seahawks cashed by a mile like all 3 top plays before it, but Philly seems like it was called wrong. Looking back, maybe it should have been a runner up as it was 90% a technical play. With the Seahawks, we had the added angle that, if they lost, there would be no chance to make the playoffs this season and the 49ers were easy pickin’s
The Eagles bet made me feel stupid, but the Colts bet did much more. I almost made Colts -4 a top play, but most of you know since I made the Saints’ Super Bowl call several years ago, Drew Brees has been the #1 qb in the league I am always personally rooting for. Big fan of Sean Payton as well (and I hated that they banned him for a year for bounty gate). So that is what held me back from making the Colts a top play even though so many systems and technical RN notes added up…
…but here is why I really feel stupid about making the Colts play more than 1 unit: Seems like Karma bit me in the ass for talking smack about Rob and Rex each week. I still don’t like Rob Ryan, but my god did he buck up last week. I thought he’d come out flat on a high, but not at all. He limited one of the elite qbs (yes, Andrew Luck is elite) to zero points until later in the second half. However that happened, I refuse to say that was Rob Ryan’s doing 🙂 Kidding aside, the Saints are maybe a team to be avoided completely or at least not risk more than a regular amount on. They seem to be playing like a team possessed, but then again, they have a bi-polar defense and post-Super Bowl win, Brees seems to have only ever had the chance to play in desperation trying to make up for the blunders over on defense. My suspicion is that the Saints organization threatened Rob Ryan to pick it up or else they’d sack him (hence the scolding you’d see every game from Payton) and made sure to quiet it with the press coverage to put try and put an end to the “End of an Era?” headlines. I could see Ryan beginning to figure it out permanently for the on-going Saints’ future. We’ll see…
Anyways, the question you have to ask on games like those is: Would you bet it again? The answer for me is yes, but perhaps for less on the Colts -4 because I let in a little bit of personal bias. Prior to the Panthers getting to 6-0, the line was much tighter for the Eagles/Panthers game. Always value in the week to week overreaction lines (advantage Eagles). As for the Colts, it really seemed like the perfect set up: you have a bad defensive coordinator snapping a bad streak at home now a road dog. Then again, Drew Brees is 25-19-1 ATS as a dog / 19-10 ATS (65.5%) playing at a new site….a stat I maybe should have taken a little more seriously.
That’s enough bashing myself: How ’bout them Raiders?!
They were beating San Diego in their own playground 37-6 up until the very end when the Chargers went for the backdoor forgetting that they were the Favorite scoring 23 pad-the-stats points in the 4th quarter…never a good idea. Good coaches know being underrated is good because you’ll catch a team off guard next week; by the same token, I have to ask: is Del Rio the real deal? Beaten down for so many years and cast away into the muck only to dredge himself out beautifully. Good story going on there.
Last thought:
*There are no winless teams as of week 6 this season.
*That’s something that hasn’t happened ONE-SINGLE-TIME since at least 1989
Has the NFL finally achieved legitimate parity? Then again 5 teams without losses by week 8 hasn’t happened much either so I’m not sure.
Anyways, just rambling…here’s what I’ve got:
NFL WEEK 8 SELECTIONS
(may follow up)
–Top Plays (1)
11/1/15 1:00PM San Francisco 49ers vs St. Louis Rams
St. Louis Rams -8
1.5 units
1.5 units
RESULT: WINNER!
–Runner Ups (1)
11/1/15 1:00PM Arizona Cardinals vs Cleveland Browns
Arizona Cardinals -5.5
1.25 units
1.25 units
RESULT: WINNER!
–Rest of the herd (1)
11/1/15 1:00PM Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings +107 (moneyline)
1 unit
RESULT: WINNER!
1 unit
RESULT: WINNER!
3 TEAM PARLAY:
11/1/15 9:30AM Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs ML
+
+
11/1/15 1:00PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons ML
+
11/1/15 4:05PM New York Jets vs Oakland Raiders
New York Jets ML
—
(0.52 units to win 1.25 units)
RESULT: LOSS (atlanta lost it in OT)
*All Selections are supported by Raw Numbers greater than 1 TDs edge along with Systems and Trends
In STL: (Top Play RAMS)*
1. ) First off, major trend active here: Since 2010, teams that just played the Seahawks are 24-50-4 32.4% ATS next week. – The Seahawks beat you up and kill morale: If the team lost to the Seahawks, they’re 14-32-2 (30.4%) ATS — The last occurrence (1-2 ATS) of a Thursday blowout, now playing on Sunday was with none other than the San Francisco 49ers; the Ram’s opponent on Sunday.
2.) The Niners are garbage; they have two wins and got 5 penalty 1st downs in those games. The only way this one loses is if the Rams play undisciplined and give Kaepernick those free 1st downs to keep the ball moving down field.
3.) Right now, for whatever reason I can’t fathom, over 75% of the public bets are on the SFO money line. The line. Never take the public dog.
4.) The Rams don’t have many fans. Not many show up in their home games, but that is changing as the Rams improve in a number of ways: a motivated secondary and a solid defensive front.
5.) That game against the Seahawks was huge. The 49ers put all they had into it and lost; expect them to come out flat in this one having just about completely lost playoff hopes.
6.) Gurley. Enough said. Go back and watch what he did last week. I had to watch it on a friend’s DVR because Comcast sucks.
Runner up in Cleveland:
SYSTEM: Fade the home sub +7 dog or favorite off of an ATS loss playing a team off of a road loss. Since 2006, between week 7 and 12 this is 54-75 (41.5%) ATS.
+
SYSTEM 2:
Since 2011, a team off of a game with 1 or 0 turnovers is 146-80-1 SU against a team with a turnover margin of 2 or more last game.
+
CLE009: The Browns are 0-8 ATS at home when they play on the road in their next two games.
In addition, Josh McCown has a shoulder injury and it is likely that Johnny Manziel starts this one. Here are some stats of his:
*In 8 starts he’s gotten just 3 TD’s
*He’s Turned it over 8 times total in those 8 starts.
*He’s got a QB rating of 31.7 career.
He’s improving; without a doubt. He may or may not be suspended by the league though so the QB situation for the Brownies is in constant change; that makes things difficult when facing a
*Arians is 19-6 ATS in all games he’s coached against sub .500 teams.
*He’s 31-12 in all games off of 6 or fewer days rest.
REST OF THE HERD:
These a fairly decent plays.
Feel free to split the parlay apart into several 0.5 to 1 unit plays.
That’s it for this week.
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