6-2 75% +$413.00 This Week in NFL

Sunday, October 7th Score Status Pick Amount
Cleveland 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +9.5 Lost 2.00
N.Y. Giants        
Seattle 4:05 PM ET Seattle +3 Won 1.00
Chicago 4:05 PM ET Chicago -4 Won 1.00
Denver 4:25 PM ET New England -6.5 Won 1.00
New England        
San Diego 8:20 PM ET New Orleans -3.5 Won 1.50
New Orleans        
6 Pt. Teaser: (1 unit) WINNER!
#417 Cleveland Browns +15.5
#430 New England Patriots -0.5
Two Team Parlay:
#427 Chicago Bears ML
#434 New Orleans ML
(1 unit to win 1.23 units) WINNER!
Add: #417 Cleveland Browns +318 (0.5 units) Lost
over the New York Giants

Reference (By Occurrence)….
KeNFL Margins of Victory3, 7, 10, 6, 414, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 4047, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
In New York:
*The Browns have had a top 10 difficult Strength of Schedule in the NFL while the New York Giants have had (by my accounts) the second easiest and are STILL JUST .500
*The Giants may be flat off of the 2 point loss to the Phillies; now Hakeem Nicks is doubtful. 

*Tom Coughlin is just SU: 3-9-0 (-2.2) average line -5.4 (big ROI loss) and ATS:5-7-0 (-7.6) at home after a 2 or more game road trip.

*The Browns are SU: 7-0-0 (8.1) and ATS: 7-0-0 (10.9) average line +2.7 (big ROI gain) on the road since 2002 after 2+ games rushing 80 yards or less. Expect good stuff from Richardson.

Bottom Line: Cleveland is playing HARD for their first win. Last week they were too; we took them and I don’t see why we wouldn’t want to ride this stealth train again.
Final Score: CLEVELAND 19 NEW YORK 21
In Seattle:
Bottom Line: People think the Seahawks are bad on the road. Not really in my opinion; it is more a case of it being hard to call plays in Seattle. Anyways, Carolina lost a tough one that you don’t quickly rebound from in Atlanta. I posted on the home page a trend for Atlanta: “Mike Smith is 23-1-0 (+13.0 ppg, 19-5 ATS, +21 units) as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons when facing a team below .500. This will be good to keep in mind for week 4 when the Falcons take on the Carolina Panthers at home.” I think that Carolina bit off more than they could chew while the Seahawks are off of a more sobering loss. 
Final Score: SEATTLE 22 CAROLINA 21
In Jacksonville:
Bottom Line: The raw numbers give this one a pretty good projection. Really I should be putting more down on it….and I did with the parlay so I think this is the right amount for a public back bet. Perhaps a little too much, but I just can’t see Jacksonville doing much against the Bears here. The Bears are SU:17-2-0 (9.4) and ATS:10-5-4 (4.9) avg line: -4.6 as road favorites under Lovie Smith. I really hate the line (-4.5), but we did get value off of the open so I’ll take it for a little backing the big raw numbers (actually this week I recommend not going real heavy on anything except Cleveland because we don’t have any real huge projections like we usually do. Odd week…).
Final Score: BEARS 23 JAGUARS 12
In New England:
*Belichick is SU: 16-0-0 (15.1) and ATS:12-3-1 (7.2) after a win that snapped a loss (in this case a what what what? a streeeeeeak???)
Bottom Line: Back the raw numbers. AND — Real simple: The Patriots have had the fourth toughest strength of schedule in the NFL thusfar. They aren’t going under .500 again while the Broncos could easily just revert to what happened in their game before the last. You might see some residual from last game and a tight first half until we have another Buffalo-esque blow out.
Final Score: PATRIOTS 31 BRONCOS 20
New Orleans:
-Drew Brees is SU:13-5-0 (10.2) and ATS:13-5-0 (5.7) after a loss on the road with the Saints.
*The Chargers have had THE #1 easiest schedule so far in the NFL!
*The Saints just lost to the Green Bay Packers (former Super Bowl champions) by a single point. They actually had it won (as +9 underdogs), but a holding call brought the line back voiding out the win.
Bottom line: The San Diego Chargers are shocking everyone right now by doing well in the first few weeks of NFL; this is something that never happens. Time to prove though that it isn’t fraud. They won’t though; the Saints are going to play like rabid maniacs here in desperation in the dome. Good luck Norv Turner.
Final Score: SAINTS 31 CHARGERS 23

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