April and May Heavy Chalk System
Last year I posted this season somewhere as “SU: 184-72 (1.9 rpg, 71.8%, 4.4% Roi)” and now it is 211-78 73%, +6.0% roi.
The system is so good to me because it is very very simple and logical. Here it is:
SYSTEM: *In database history, Early in the Season (April, May), heavy chalk (-250 < line < -200) is 211-78 (+1.9 rpg, 73%, +38.5 units, +6.0% roi)
SDQL Text: ‘-250 < line < -200 and (month = 4 or month = 5)’
– That’s 4 (arguably 2) parameters: month=4, month=5, line<-200, line<-250
– Eight out of 10 winning seasons. Losing seasons are marginal…
– Good sample size: 289 games.
Madison Bumgarner 4-0 +$400 this season averaging a -152.2 line in his starts.
THE LOGIC: In the last two months of regular season (database history), this same spot (‘-250 < line < -200’ – Heavy Chalk) bankrupted bettors coming in at 403-198 (67.1%, -34.64 units). In those two month, you can be sure these were the games the public was really loving, and what happens in the last months of MLB is team clinching spots and pacing all differently.
Consider that…
*Last regular season, before August, the #1 team for units won was the Pittsburgh Pirates (59-44 57.3% +21.63 units)
*Last regular season, starting August, the #1 team for units lost as Favorites was the Pittsburgh Pirates (9-16 36% +13.68 units)
I thought that was interesting that the #1 team for each category was the same.
Anyways, back to the bigger picture: If the public loses on heavy chalk in this range, does it stand to reason that the betting public would want to touch them again come next April and May?
…well that would explain at least why this returns a pretty good amount of dollars (we get more value with less betting competition).