Free NFL Conference Week Write-up

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2014 NFL Top Play Total – 9-4 (69.2%) ATS

NFL 2014 Conference RAW NUMBERS
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Last week: What a game in Foxborough. If you didn’t see it, go back and watch a replay. An instant classic. Hard to come by a legitimate game where the players actually won the game these days…
*Playoff underdogs on their second or more straight playoff road game are 26-14-0 (65.0%) ATS and 34-5-1 (87.2%) in a 6 point teaser.
Active to PLAY ON the Indianapolis Colts +7
*Patriots are 12-1-0 on Turf (artificial) this season and 1-3 on grass. They’re at home (turf) again….but let’s keep this in mind in case they look real good this week and then the Super Bowl is in San Francisco on grass. Would be a major check against the Patriots for me.
My favorite comedian Bill Burr actually chimed into this Cowboy stuff again this week:
Last week: “Can you let the players win the ****in’ game?”
This week: “I was going to throw the tv out the window….”
I hear ya Burr. If the play looked good, it entertained everyone, it looked like real football, then let it stand. In my heart of hearts, the Packers did not win that game. I hate sounding like a broken record, but two teams now lost because of asinine or inconceivable officiating.
The other thing is karma….people saying that the Cowboys lost because of karma?! What kind of crap is that? The Lions lost because the refs skrewed them and the Cowboys lost because the refs skrewed them. Simple as that. Sorry if you’re a Packers fan or a Cowboys fan; ask yourself how you truly feel about the Packers winning that game. What does that win do for you as a fan? That’s what I want to know. Anyways, after seeing how sketchy these refs are, I can’t say I’d want to touch the Packers this week even with 7.5 points. I’m literally not touching the Packers because I think the refs will have a little bias against the Packers this week because of how badly they’re getting grilled again. All of the grilling is deserved. They’re awful.
PCG Playoff Rankings from end of regular season:
1. Seattle Seahawks (W)
2. Denver Broncos (L)
3. Baltimore Ravens (awesome defense getting 25% more sacks / game than Texans) (W) > (L)
4. Green Bay Packers (MVP alert; fade if that’s the case) (Almost lost (W))
5. New England Patriots (W)
6. Indianapolis Colts (W)
7. Dallas Cowboys (W) > (L)
8. Detroit Lions (L)
9. Arizona Cardinals (L)
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (too one dimensional) (L)
11. Cincinnati Bengals (L)
12. Carolina Panthers (WORST) (Won against one of the worst QB’s I’ve seen) > (L)
Not too bad.
So we’re down to:
1. Seattle Seahawks
4. Green Bay Packers
5. New England Patriots
6. Indianapolis Colts
Lines are sharp as can be this week.
::popcorn munching continues::
Well, I’ll give you one thing, but is just for shits…
Two Team Teaser 6.5 pts:
#304 Indianapolis Colts +13
#302 Seattle / Green Bay OVER 40
Amount: Beer Money (0.01 units)
Again, *Playoff underdogs on their second or more straight playoff road game are 26-14-0 (65.0%) ATS and 34-5-1 (87.2%) in a 6 point teaser (Colts).
The Colts are getting undervalued, but man if the Patriots aren’t good. I recommend putting no more that about $5 or $10 on this bet.
Think about it: I had the Ravens projected as a strong candidate to win the Super Bowl and the Patriots took ’em out in one of the best NFL games I’ve seen. What does that say about the Pats? Of course, I do have a system where you fade a team in the playoffs that just won in a high scoring game. They usually end up getting overrated.
I’m putting my opinion (not my money) on Andrew Luck this weekend to cover 13 points against the Pats. 14 points would be nice and I think some people could get that as a number of books have indy at +7 and you could tease 7 points to +14 (a significant key number…see below):
As for Seattle and Green Bay. The main reason I want to play this one is simply because we can cross THE most key number of all NFL totals : 41 (see below).
Raw numbers have an 80% chance on the head of the teaser hitting for the over in Seattle. You don’t see that often…
The other thing is that these are public fades….something I’ve learned to put a little bit less weight into in my capping; nevertheless:
Under 45% are on the Colt’s spread. Sharps are all over it.
Under 45% are on the SEA/GB Over. People think that Rodgers will look like he did last week and get no points up. Total is set at an overreaction to that theory. It may be true.
Anyways…this is a part of the season where bettor’s lose their composure. If I saw something good this week I’d bet it. I don’t, Everything is so close. I’m just going to sit back and enjoy these games. If I see one bullshit referree call, I turn the game off and go do something constructive. Be looking for the refs to skrew over the Packers this week because the “gotta get it right.”
NFL Reference (By Occurrence)….

Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
Extra thoughts for NFL this week:
***Pete Carroll is 35-9-0 (+9.16 ppg, 79.5%) SU and 31-12-1 ATS at home with the Seahawks.
*****33-6-0 SU and 28-10-1 ATS line < +4 points
*Since 2012, teams that just beat the Denver Broncos are 8-3-0 SU and 8-3-0 ATS in their next game.

Colts and Luck are legit. Let’s not hype Patriots play up too much yet.
**The Colts are 11-2-0 SU and 10-3-0 ATS this season playing on under 7 days rest.
Pagano is 22-7 SU in the same situation with the Colts
*****Bill Belichick is 54-14-0 SU (79.4%, plus over 45 units) with the Pats after a game where they picked up UNDER 85 rushing yards.

He’s the correction king. My fantasy Running Backs for this week will be guys on the Patriots.

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