Missed the Mark on Sunday | Free MNF Pick
2-4 ATS in Week 1. Read the previous email (NCAAF Week 3). Here’s what I said last week verbatim:
“Let me say the same thing I said in NCAAF Week 1 and 2: Don’t go heavy yet…” Week 3-4 is usually when we start building momentum. Anyways…you know the drill.
Week 2 is an overreaction week usually. The public won big time over the books last week…and since I’m usually trying to tail what the books are betting, I didn’t do well either. I’m calling a rebound this week.
Let’s take a look at who the most bet on teams are as of 1:14 PM Thursday:
(From most bet on descending)
ATS: #1 Miami, Rams, Titans, Ravens, Cardinals
Moneyline: #1 49ers, Ravens, Lions, Rams, Titans, Patriots
For starters, I sure won’t be betting on the Rams, Titans or Ravens this week as an instant filter. Without capping them at all, I’d wager fading those three goes at least 2-1. We’ll see…do yourself a favor and mark those ones in red.
Week 2 is also a validation week. Teams that upset in week 1 or blew out opp. and then blowout their next opponent begin establishing themselves as potentially elite teams. Watch Kansas City, Buffalo, Rams,Titans, Giants, 49ers and Falcons. These will mostly be the public, square bets this week, but the ones that win I’ll take another look at because, again, they’ve possibly validated themselves.
—
Purchase All PCG Systems:
Week 2 Selections:
9/20/15 1:00PM San Francisco 49ers vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers -6
1 unit
1 unit
9/20/15 1:00PM Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
Detroit Lions +3
1 unit
1 unit
9/20/15 1:00PM New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills +2
1.25 units
(Best Bet)*
9/20/15 8:30PM Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers
Seattle Seahawks +3.5
1.25 units
1.25 units
(Best Bet)*
9/21/15 8:30PM New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts -7
1.25 units
1.25 units
(Best Bet)*
—
Six Point Teaser (-110 odds)
9/20/15 4:25PM Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Cowboys +11
+
+
9/20/15 1:00PM St. Louis Rams vs Washington Redskins
UNDER 47
1 unit
—
*All Selections are supported by Raw Numbers greater than 1 TDs edge along with Systems and Trends
That’s 5 plays and 1 teaser. I’ve done very well in teasers despite the consensus being that they’re a square thing to bet. I’ve always disagreed….
In Indy: Best Bet*
Career, Andrew Luck is a solid 23-5 SU and 22-5-1 ATS (81.5%) off of a game with a completion % of 45 or better and he threw a reasonable number of passes.
*He’s a perfect 10-0 SU and 10-0 ATS, same situation, but he lost that game where he personally put up great numbers. That is a solid trend…
The moneyline bets are pretty split looking like we may have a public dog by Sunday on the Jets…everyone loving that 31-10 win over the Brownies. Solid….er wait a minute; that was against Johnny Manziel who had never gotten a single Touchdown as a QB in his career up until that game. If you’re betting the Jets here, you’re overreacting big time to a meaningless win.
Antonio Cromartie is doubtful for Monday which won’t be any good for the Jets.
Colts roll in this one.
In Green Bay: Best Bet*
Jordy Nelson is out for the Packers in the one with a torn acl. He was out in game 1 as well and it didn’t seem to matter, but then again, the Packers are 13-3 SU 13-3 ATS in the Cutler-Rodgers era. I really wanted to be the Bears last week, but I just felt that the game was going to be a freebie for the Pack…and it was and I’m glad I passed!
A number of things I like here going for the Seahawks:
1. Since 2002, a road team off of a road loss is undervalued going 280-195 ATS.
2. Since 2003, road teams playing their second or more game on the road consistently. They’ve gone 498-384-20 (56.5%) ATS in a simple and robust system. – The more robust version of #1.
3. This breaks down to a gnarly 160-92-3 (+2.16 ppg, 63.5%) ATS if —
A. It IS NOT a MNF game
B. Playon team isn’t on a worse losing streak than 3 games (Seattle is just on one).
Bills: *Best Bet
Lots of sharp action on this one on the Bills.
Lots of sharp action on this one on the Bills.
The Bills are much better than everyone thinks and here’s a fun fact:
*Rex Ryan is 8-5-0 61.5% ATS against Bill Belichick.
**He is a perfect 3-0 (+10.83 whopping ppg) ATS seeking revenge for a previous season loss.
Now Rex Ryan actually has some fire power; mainly with the Bills defense which has been good for a while now. They shut out Andrew Luck and the Colts for a whole half. They knocked down 11 passes and got 2 interceptions which is extremely impressive. This defense is exactly the sort to be able to stop Gronkowski which will probably be one of the biggest factors in this game.
We’ve got the Bills to hold the Patriots to 17 points or less. That leaves things to Tyron Taylor which is a concern for me and a big reason they’re home dogs.
Big value here. Rex Ryan had a .500 coaching record with the Jets, but it always seemed like designing his defense specifically for the Patriots was his priority. The motivation is here in this one and that is possibly more than half the battle.
Go Bills.
Other thoughts:
In Philly:
This is a classic bet for me — I love fading the Cowboys when they’re Home favorites (which we did last week and won) — and then betting them after they let everyone down.
*The Cowboys are a nasty 28-42-1 (40.0%) ATS as home favorites with Tony Romo at QB. They went 46-25-0 64.8% SU though just squeaking by the wins and not covering. Last week was most definitely a squeak by win.
So two things happen next:
1. They hit the road and get a big time over reaction line (+5 this week).
So more value betting them.
2. The Cowboys and Tony Romo come out humbled….think about it: go back and look at that last game against the Giants; last minutes that come back and win by 1 point. That is what Romo does. I don’t know why, but afterwards he is usually humbled which is when we want to bet him. He’ll go 110% now the full game — not just at the very end.
*Tony Romo is 10-3-0 ATS (76.9%) after a no cover game as a home favorite now a road dog of 2 points or more. Very simple. 8-2 ATS if the margin was 3 points or less (tight win or a loss).
Feel free to take the Boys for a unit out of the teaser.
Steelers:
*Very powerful 231-158 ATS (59.4%) System Active to fade the 49ers (and play the Steelers)
Lions:
Same two systems are active to bet the Lions as with the Seahawks (#1 and #2)
Same two systems are active to bet the Lions as with the Seahawks (#1 and #2)
As well as the intensely strong Subset: 160-92-3 (+2.16 ppg, 63.5%) ATS
This would be a Best Bet is it weren’t for the trend I brought up last week about how the Lions have always had trouble on the road.
Best of luck,
Tom
Got something to say?