Monday System + Free Play for 7/16
Two Team Parlay:
We’re on a very nice run no doubt about it, but it is that time to relax and think more about locking it in rather than ‘riding the hot train.’ Read on if you want my advice on how to keep a consistent flow of income year round….
As always, do what you want; I won’t change anything as far as giving you plays, but I’ll personally cash out half of my bankroll at the end of this astronomical roi season. Yes, ‘astronomical.’ I’ve been more conservative with unit sizing this season so 2012 may not seem that big, but this has been my second best season in the last 10 years in terms of roi and winning percentage (not that winning percentage is all that important). If you’ve been playing the risky 2-6 progression you might be up close to +150 or +200 units.
AMERICAN BASEBALL $ IN JULY / THE STORY:
I’ve established many times before that July is a blind profiting month for the favorite…perhaps the only month in any sport where the favorite yields you blind profit. The story of gambling baseball goes: Joe Public remembers what hurt him last and decides to make big adjustments. Now the very nature of the sports and/or the bookmakers shift the tables…we go from dull, anti-spirited April to fan-based heated, high tension, HOT, muggy July. The dogs stop barking and the ball starts flying (scientifically, heat and humidity makes the ball fly further…not to mention, common sense-wise, the starters have strokes on the mound). Later (soon actually), the tides will turn and the dogs will start barking again as we get new young call-ups (that you should have been studying in Spring training….lucky you have me). Finally, the season will end with -200 and up favorites failing….we’ll try to clean up hard there….at this point the public is feeling that the -200 and up is the ONLY predictable thing after the wacky month of August where even I have some troubles each year. Now that bet craps, and from experience we know to fade.
THE ONLY MONTH WHERE THE FAVORITE BLIND PROFITS…
Use this query to see how the favorite does per month: http://killersports.com/mlb.py/query?sid=guest_201973&sort=query_header&text=F+and+month&submit=query
Since 2004, the favorite is 1889-1282 (0.86, 59.6%, +49.02 units). The home favorite is 1348-845 (0.88, 61.5%, +80.6 units)!
THE MONDAY (today) EXCEPTION:
BUT, there is an exception. Sort out July home favorites by day of the week: http://killersports.com/mlb.py/query?text=line%20%3C%20-105%20and%20month=7%20and%20site=home%20and%20day&sort=AGAINST_PL&sid=guest_322530
**Since 2004, July Home Favorites are only 117-96 (0.52, 54.9%, +14.61 units to fade) on Monday**
THE PREMISE:
Home favorites do so well in July (I believe) because attendance is better…even the road favorite sometimes is advantaged by a crowd more into them than their own starter.
THE PROOF (AVERAGE ATTENDANCE):
*Monday Home favorites in July lose double digit units and average 32,044 spectators per Monday game.
*Saturday are the best day for Home favorites in July (+70.48 units).
**Saturdays yield 15.2% more spectators on average since 2004 than Mondays (37,795 [SUN] vs. 32,044 [MON])**
A SYSTEM TO SEND US OUT:
In July, since 2004, home Monday favorites -150 to -210, total greater than 8, series games less than 4 are 18-26 (-1.0 rpg, -26.15 units, +50.9% roi fade) SU. To fade them, the runline is a big ole +42% roi.
That gives us Toronto, and you can loosen that system to: -210 to -120, total >=8 to get Baltimore too for a nice 15.2% roi fade and 63% on the runline (+we have a raw number advantage there).
-The New York Yankees are only 26-32 -16.58 units off a loss on a Monday.
-The Minnesota Twins are 40-90 -49.09 units since 2009 against the AL East.
-The Blue Jays are 3-1 on the road on Mondays this season. 18-12 +41.7% roi as road dogs since 2009.
Good luck,
Tom