NFL SUPER BOWL XLVII

 
Thoughts: Talk about uncharted territory; this Sunday in New Orleans we have the first brothers to coach against one another in the Super Bowl. Neither team was the prohibitive favorite to get here. Joe Flacco is a free agent after this game. Colin Kaepernick is a first year starter with the 3rd fewest in Super Bowl history. Likely the best Ravens player in history announce that this will be his last season. The Ravens are undefeated since that announcement. Another weird thing to me is having this one in New Orleans the same season Goodell ruined the Saints (or at least that’s what some folks down there will say). If anyone thinks I’m going big on this one, they haven’t been paying attention to how I play my cards. No one game should outweigh a season’s success; however, I do have a small wager for this game. First though:

Why you should take the Baltimore Ravens:

 
1. *The Ravens are the better team at pressuring the quarterback. Since 2004, in the playoffs, teams averaging more sacks that the other team are 57-40-1 ATS (58.7%).
-That’s 6-4 ATS this season and 5-3 ATS in the Super Bowl.
 
2. Since 2001, Super Bowl teams with the lower win percent are 10-0 ATS (7-3 SU). 
-Simple concept: the less likely you were to get into the Bowl, the more momentum you build.
 
3. Since 2001, the Super Bowl team averaging more points offensively is only 3-7-0 ATS (4-6 SU).
 
4. As mentioned above, Joe Flacco is a free agent after this. That is because he could never convince those in charge that he could win you games. Now he is doing just that and will have a lot to prove this Sunday.
 
5. The Ravens are undefeated since Ray Lewis announced that this is his last season.
 
6. Ed Reed is the better punt returner and playmaker for the Ravens. The raw numbers have this game close as can be and field position matters a lot in close games.
-This might also come down to be a 3 pt battle between Akers and Tucker. Justin Tucker is the guy I’d trust a lot more here.
 
OFFICIAL SUPER BOWL SELECTION:
Game Score Status Pick Amount
Baltimore – 6:30 PM ET Baltimore +4 1.00
San Francisco –        
Final Projected Raw Numbers Score: RAVENS 24.2 49ers 24
Bottom line: We don’t have a real clear winner, but since it is so close, the value is on the Ravens at +3.5 or better. It seems too rational to take the 49ers here, and rationality doesn’t seem to often come through in the NFL. 
 
Reference (By Occurrence)….
Key NFL Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
 
Good luck,
PCG

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