NFL Week 14 Selections and Writeups

NFL WEEK 14 SELECTIONS

All Active Systems: Member Discount
—

NFL RAW NUMBERS​​

Dec 13 1:00 pm

Redskins vs Bears  Take: Redskins +3.5 for 1.5 units -=TOP PLAY=-

New England Patriots -3 (previously sent).
for 1.25 units
—

Dec 14 8:30 pm

Giants vs Dolphins Take: Giants -0.5 for 1.25 units -=RUNNER UP=-

–Rest of the herd (2)

Dec 13 1:00 pm

Steelers vs Bengals Take: Steelers +3 for 1 unit

and

6.5 point Teaser for 0.25 units

Patriots vs Texans Patriots +3.5

Falcons vs Panthers Falcons +14

—
*All Selections this week are supported by Raw Numbers greater than 1 TDs edge along with Systems and Trends I will follow up with Writeups after this. Just wanted to fire this email off now so you can get on these lines…

—
In Houston (New England -3):
Refer to previous email for writeup on this one plus the System mentioned in the “Thoughts” section above.

In Chicago (Washington +3.5 TOP PLAY):
SYSTEM: 043ats – Since 1989, a team that just played as a favorite in a game that was tied going into the 4th quarter against a team off of a game that went over the total is 96-70-4 ATS (57.8%) the next week.
SDQL: p:M3=0 and p:F and op:O

1. That’s 69-43-3 ATS 61.6% as long as the team stayed won by no more than a field goal or lost SU.

2. 62-37-2 64.6% ATS if the team failed to cover or push…

3. Finally, that is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS if the opponent just lost in Overtime.
Final SDQL : p:M3=0 and p:F and op:O and p:margin<=3 and p:ats margin<0 and op:overtime=1 and op:L

I think this system begins to paint a decent picture of what is going on here: The Bears aren’t winning at home and they’re probably going to come into this one flat off of a hard fought OT loss. The Redskins may be 0-5 on the road, but have a look at who they played starting from most recent: Carolina (12-0 now), New England (10-2) , NY Jets (7-5), Atlanta (6-6). The Bears are winning games close (2,1,3,24,4 pts) so -3.5 will be a tougher cover than it looks especially with Gould on a dry spell with field goals. That isn’t an angle here fyi; Gould is probably the best kicker in the league and I’m sure he’ll bounce back. Anyways…

Some Other thoughts:
*Jay Cutler is just 16-26 ATS in home games and has a QB Rating of 46.6 against Washington.
*Say what you want about Kirk Cousins; his passes have been spot on this season with a completion % of 68.6!

In Miami: (NY Giants’s Runner Up)
Since 2009, a team off of a game with <=5.5 YPPA against team with >=8 YPPA is just 13-43 (23.2%) SU and 22-33 ATS fade the Dolphins

*Ryan Tannehill has had just a 58.6 completion % as a home dog. He’s 4-8 ATS this season. Manning has, believe it or not just a 2.1% rate of interceptions this season. You remember his for his incomprehensible picks, but overall not a bad job on that end.
*Tom Coughlin is 10-3 SU against the AFC East as head coach of the Giants. He’s 55-36 SU after a game a home and has always been great on the road.

*Since 1989, sub .500 Favorites that have lost 4 or more of their last 5 games on no worse than a 3 game losing streak are 188-84-1 SU (69.1%) and 158-113-2 ATS (58.3%). I’m thinking more about the SU record here as this game is essentially pick’em. This one is 49-12 SU and 41-20 67.2% ATS since 2010.

Best of luck today,
Tom