NFL Week 16 Results

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2014 NFL Top Play Total – 7-3 (70%) ATS
NFL 2014 WEEK 16 RAW NUMBERS
NFL Week 16 Ratings:
Note: There is only one now in “THE GREAT” category. Last week (from time of release), the top category went 3-1 ATS with the Packers losing; however, we had their opponent (the Bills) in the underrated category which went 4-2. So not really a bad chart to be looking at. I think that some notable things for this week off of the chart would be that the Eagles are a good team that has now lost its over rated status, despite having an MVP, the Texans are overrated, the Dolphins are now underrated after holding a seat in the top category, the Rams are underrated and are tied with the leader of the AFC South and the Raiders and Jags aren’t Awful, but two other teams are. Final thought of the week: Drew Brees is currently the top fantasy QB and was on top last week. I’m tired of people asking the question: what happened with Brees? Nothing happened; he just plays on a team with a bum defensive coordinator and is trying to pick up slack. This should be a testament to how good Brees really is….he has led the Saints to the number one spot in the division now (and it says a whole lot more than it looks like in my opinion).
News / Facts:
*Bears starting Jimmy Clausen; Jay Cutler benched? Hmm….well this sort of thing usually backfires.
*Michigan offers Harbaugh 6 year $48 million deal. I’d take that personally…skrew the fair-weather 49ers fans.

*Adam Vinatieri is only Kicker this season not to miss. Has made all 28 field goals, and all 46 extra points. The power of age and experience….

*Le’Veon Bell, despite 262 carries for 1,278 yards and 76 receptions for 765 yards, hasn’t fumbled once this year.
*The Buffalo Bills have clinched their first non-losing season in a decade by beating the Green Bay Packers!
*Sanchez is still shitty QB: http://www.gfycat.com/AliveSeriousAlaskanhusky (or form your own opinion).

THE SELECTIONS:

Saturday, December 20

GameScoreStatusPickAmount
San Diego (W)388:25 PM ETSan Diego +11.00
San Francisco35   WINNER!

Sunday, December 21

GameScoreStatusPickAmount
Minnesota351:00 PM ETMinnesota +71.00
Miami (W)37   WINNER!
Green Bay (W)201:00 PM ETGreen Bay -10*1.00
Tampa Bay3   WINNER!
Kansas City121:00 PM ETKansas City +31.00
Pittsburgh (W)20   LOST
Indianapolis4:25 PM ETIndianapolis +31.20
Dallas   Pending…

Monday, December 22

GameScoreStatusPickAmount
Denver8:30 PM ETDenver -31.20
Cincinnati   Pending…
I’m going to hit send here so you can get these lines in and then I’ll follow up with a writeup email. I really wanted a top play this week because it has been a while; Denver checks in with so many things, but they’re a public backed clinched team that we can only possibly count on to sharpen their blades for the playoffs.
Stay tuned for writeups on these. Get the lines for now though.
Thought of the day: 
Reference (By Occurrence)….

Key Margins of Victory: 37, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31

 

WRITEUPS:

San Diego Chargers:

The 49ers resign to play the troll role; while the Chargers have playoff implications in this one. Harbaugh played for his job last week and now I think they’re going to be flat. He’ll either be going to Miami, Oakland or Michigan; San Francisco has some of the most disloyal fans burning Kaepernick jerseys after booing away Alex Smith who is now doing great in KC with reasonable people around him. The 49ers are 0-6 ATS this season at home 3-3 SU. I wouldn’t want to play there…I’m sure I’d get booed out of there in the first two minutes of the game. It may be hard to focus on this game for Harbaugh, Kaepernick, and crew with that going on plus the distraction of where Harbaugh is going to next.
*I’m counting 26 injuries to the 49ers. They’ll have the janitor out on the field on Saturday. That includes Frank Gore questionable who would be the most key injury. This is one of the most unhealthy teams.
****MEGA TREND (Thanks to Mitch and Ali): Teams that just played the Seahawks go 32-42-1 SU and 23-48-4 ATS in their next games. OUCH. The Seahawks are brutal…hence the massive injury list? That’s 19-26 SU and 12-29-4 (70.7% to fade) ATS if playing at home next. 49ers are going to be hurt and flat and emotionally crushed here while the Chargers will do their very best to work on a legit, 15.7% chance left for playoffs.
Raw numbers are projecting: CHARGERS 24 49ERS 17 win for San Diego on the road plus the points
Minnesota Vikings:
SYSTEM: *Since 1989, a team off of a 1,2 or 3 point close loss goes 42-11-0 (79.2%) SU the following week against a team that just allowed 37+ points.

*MEGA SYSTEM: *Since 1989, a team playing at least one consecutive game on the road might be undervalued having gone 941-829-46 (53.2%) ATS. That’s 490-378-20 (56.5%) ATS since 2003. Active this week on the Packers -10, Vikings +7, Broncos -3. Take this system to the bank folks. It has a contrarian nature so I think it should hold up for many more years before anyone seriously begins to catch on.
Raw numbers are projecting: VIKINGS 18 DOLPHINS 17 possible upset for Minnesota on the road plus the points
Green Bay Packers:
*MEGA SYSTEM: *Since 1989, a team playing at least one consecutive game on the road might be undervalued having gone 941-829-46 (53.2%) ATS. That’s 490-378-20 (56.5%) ATS since 2003. Active this week on the Packers -10, Vikings +7, Broncos -3.
Raw numbers are projecting: PACKERS 41 BUCCS 17 win for Green Bay on the road minus the points
Kansas City Chiefs:
Kansas City has a great pass rush and great blitzing. I love the Chiefs this season. Raw numbers aside, I have Kansas City in my underrated category and the Steelers in my overrated category. That should make this a play on its own….however:
Raw numbers are projecting: CHIEFS 31 STEELERS 27 upset win for Kansas City on the road plus the points
Indianapolis Colts:
***MEGA TREND: The Underdog is 53-23-1 (69.7%) ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.
*The Cowboys are just 7-23-0 (23.3%) ATS as home favorites since 2010. 0-5 ATS for -3 points or less.
Raw numbers are projecting: COLTS 31 COWBOYS 27 win for Indianapolis on the road plus the points
Denver Broncos:
*MEGA SYSTEM: *Since 1989, a team playing at least one consecutive game on the road might be undervalued having gone 941-829-46 (53.2%) ATS. That’s 490-378-20 (56.5%) ATS since 2003. Active this week on the Packers -10, Vikings +7, Broncos -3.
Raw numbers are projecting: BRONCOS 31 BENGALS 20 win for the Broncos on the road minus the points
I would also consider the following bets:
BEARS +10
OAKLAND +7
SEAHAWKS -8

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