Our Top One For Today is a Winner!
| Baltimore | – | 1:00 PM ET | Baltimore +2.5 +106 | 2.00 |
| Miami | – | (Top Play) |
RESULT: WINNER!
Reference (By Occurrence)….
Key NFL Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
In Miami (TOP PLAY):
SYSTEM:
**Since 2003, Road Underdogs off of a road loss are 180-114-3 (61.2%) ATS.
***That is 9-1 SU and 9-1 ATS (+5.1 ppg, 90.0%) if the team is between -3 and +3 and it is still the first month of the season.
ML SYSTEM:
The League is 62-32-0 SU and 57-32-5 (64%) ATS since 2009 in this same situation when on the road for between +4 and -4 points. (Arizona seemed like a good pick too this week, but the raw numbers didn’t agree; maybe take it small).
If you have the option, I would take the +3 points, but it looks like most books have moved this one off of the handle inviting bets on Miami (doesn’t -2.5 seem easier than +2.5?). I would personally rather take the couple of points with some plus odds than buying the hook to +3 here…or else just taking the Raven’s ML as we have them projected to win SU here.
*The Dolphins are 17-37-1 (31.5%) ATS in their last 10 seasons as favorites.
The Ravens aren’t as bad as people keep saying. Consider that one of their two losses were to the Broncos and then their last one by only three points with a whopping 5 turnovers to the Bills who are underrated right now. The Dolphins failed to prove themselves on Monday and are now on a short week facing a team they saw get beaten by the Bills. Hard to get your team together in a spot like that.