TOP NFL PLAY: Winner!
Sunday, September 15
|Dallas||Winner!||1:00 PM ET||Dallas +3||1.50|
|Carolina||Winner!||1:00 PM ET||Buffalo +3||2.20|
|New Orleans||Lost!||4:05 PM ET||New Orleans -3||1.80|
|Tampa Bay||–||(Runner Up)|
|Detroit||Winner!||4:05 PM ET||Arizona +1.5||1.50|
Note: Mostly contrarian bets here so these should all gain more value closer to game time. Try the strategy of half on now half on later or just wait all the way until gametime on the dogs.
TOP PLAY THOUGHTS:
Both teams are coming off of close losses and one or both could be flat. I would say that Buffalo WON’T be as they nearly knocked off the Patriots; perhaps the most difficult team in the NFL while Carolina threw all they had at a decent opponent. Buffalo knows by now how it goes and they’re acclimated to these sort of situations. I vouch for the Buffalo slogan, “Close But No Cigar.”
Both teams are in week 2 with 0-1 records yet the public seems to have conviction on the Panthers as road favorites while the smart money is tapping Buffalo. This line could roll to +3.5 late.
Raw Number Projection:
BILLS 22.8 – PANTHERS 18.6
Adjusted Projection to Team Keys:
BILLS 24 – PANTHERS 17
*Since 1999 and in the first month of NFL regular season, Home Teams off of a home loss are a solid 39-19-0 (+5.74 ppg, 67.2%) SU and 35-22 ATS.
*The Panthers have sucked it 7-27-0 (-7.21 ppg, 20.6%) ATS since 2010 in the first half of seasons.
Follow the raw numbers and the more spirited team, but be careful about going too heavy early in the season.