What to Bet after April in MLB
As most people know, a home edge exists just about every North American sport and in mosts sports across the globe. Why? It is debatable as to why exactly, but it is something pretty close to this: the home team has a psychological advantage over the visiting team as a result of playing in familiar facilities and in front of supportive fans. Home edge is so powerful that from 2005 to 2010, blindly taking the home underdog has yielded a 2050-2405 (46%, +100.02 units, +2.2% roi) record!
Since 2004, the home edge has averaged a +4.3% edge in all MLB games (22.4k games)…
Which Month has had the Strongest Home Advantage?
Since 2004, home edge has been the strongest in the month of MAY (+6.3%); and that is *right after the second weakest month for the home team: April sports a meesly +2.6% home edge.
Fact: In May, the home team hasn’t just had a greater edge; home teams in May since 2004 have been massively profitable having gone 2135-1654 (56.3%, +119.13 units, +2.4% roi)!
Fact: In April, the home team has lost bettors more money than any other month since 2004 having gone 1692-1522 (52.6%, -171.97 units, -4.0% roi).
The Logic:
This is most definately meaningful statistically speaking and it also seems to be logical: in April, teams aren’t ranked, and if they do get ahead or behind it never means a whole lot to most people because the season is so long. So May is the first month where the fans see the game heating up and getting competitive. This fuels the teams. Weather begins to improve as well; this sparks up the crowd.
Also, bettors overreact to what did well and what did bad in the previous months. These things both naturally even out AND the bookmakers know to capitalize on what people can’t stomach betting…and this is how each season usually pans out…all season.
What to Wager On in May:
The Premise: Home teams in May have been 2135-1654 (56.3%, +119.13 units, +2.4% roi) with two losing seasons out of nine. You could bet this one alone, but you’d be wagering about 410-420 games a season and your roi would be low. On the other hand, it usually pays to not overthink things….but let’s boil it down with some basic logical filters and filters that eliminate anomaly situations:
The System: *Home teams in May are 476-333 (+146.6 units, +15.6% roi) -175 or cheaper, regular 7<=total<=10, live team – scored 2+ runs last game, sub .600, win percent less than opponent, non-interleague game, streak<=3, opponent previous margin <=2 and streak>=-4.
That is a lot of parameters, but since we started with a huge 2 parameter premise, basic filters that eliminate odd matchups and add to the premise help. We’ll also be taking less plays. Keep this one in your back pocket next month. Use it as a filter or a starting point for your own MLB capping.