Carolina -7 Best Bet of the Week Write-up

In the news:

*Rob Ryan was fired this week as the Saint’s defensive coordinator. About damn time.
That’s it. That is the biggest news from me. There are other big things, but nothing trumps this one. Read the paper if you want anything else. For those of you who just joined, this is my one little fan bias in the NFL. The Saints made me a ton of money until Rob Ryan came in at defensive coordinator losing me money until I caught on and wasting some of an elite QB’s precious time in the NFL. There’s more, but that’s it in a nutshell.
A stagnant fart lingers on though from Rob Ryan. Read on below….
–Best Bet (1)
NFLNov 22 1:00 pm


Redskins vs Panthers
Take: PANTHERS -7 for 1.25 units
Tons of things going for the Panthers, but I think it is more important for me to say why this didn’t make the top cut.
Here are my PROS:

1. Rob Ryan was fired last week, but his stench will linger on into one more week of NFL: First the stat and then my logic behind it. Teams that faced a Rob Ryan defense and scored 10 points or more are just 17-21 ATS in the next week. They’re just 8-13-0 (38.1% ATS) if they beat the Saints under Ryan and a truly disappointing 5-13-0 (-3.47 ppg, 27.8%) ATS if this team won and it wasn’t related to Drew Brees messing up; that is, Zero interceptions were thrown by the Saint’s offense. 

Why does it make sense? This is just a subset of a larger any-given-sunday sort of premise I’ve pounded away at for years. The idea is to snuff out teams off of wins that impressed the public, but broken down, weren’t very impressive at all. In this case, not too long ago (before Rob Ryan), the Saints won the Super Bowl; and yet Kirk Cousins of all people was able to topple them 47 to 14. Washington’s offense rang up no less than double digit points in every single quarter of the game. That looks pretty darn impressive to the average Joe, but was no surprise to me.

Here’s another thing…and this is why I’ve been so angry about the public’s view on the Saints “coming to an end of an era” blathering: Rob Ryan never seemed to get named in all of it, and the problem has consistently been one of the worst defenses in NFL history that he led.

Bottom line: How are the sub .500 (4-5) Seattle Seahawks (yes I’m taking them and that is besides the point) -12 points at home while the 9-0 Carolina Panthers are just -7 to the 4-5 Redskins? Does this call make a bit more sense now? The answer is: uninformed people are overreacting to Kirk Cousins win against the Saints. In my opinion at least. As always, I may be wrong…

#2. A team that had a losing record last season is just 98-150-8 ATS (39.5%) off of a win as a home dog.

#3. More systems and THE largest Raw Number edge of the week for the week on the Panthers.

So why not make this a Top Play?

I’m holding back because I am not entirely convinced with the Panthers offense. I love their defense; especially against the pass, but the offense has benefited a bit too much off of turnovers.

*Since 1989, teams, in the second half of the season, that with a beneficial turnover margin of 0.7 or more are just 580-678-36 (46.2%) ATS. This is huge and can’t be ignored. It absolutely disqualifies Carolina as a top play.

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