Miami Dolphins – TOP PLAY – Smear Patriots
NFL 2014 WEEK ONE RAW NUMBERS
Posted here: http://www.
| Game | Score | Status | Pick | Amount |
| Oakland | 14 | 1:00 PM ET | Oakland +5.5 WINNER! | 1.50 |
| N.Y. Jets | 19 | |||
| New England | 20 | 1:00 PM ET | Miami +5 WINNER! | 2.00 |
| Miami | 33 | (Top Play) |
Games that came close in order of strength (Seattle, Detroit, New Orleans, Cincinnati, Minnesota).
Of all of those, I would consider Seattle the most as it just fit a slew of technical parameters. Too much of a marquee game though and we have lots of reasons to like Green Bay this season. Definitely worth a unit though if you’re in the mood for a bet tonight.
Those are probably each good for 1 unit, but that is a shakey one unit. Week 1 is never easy and people often tend to go hog wild taking too many plays so we’re going to stick with our two best: Miami and Oakland.
In Miami (TOP PLAY):
Again….”In Miami”…why is it week one and Dolphins are +5 point home underdogs.
The weather is forcasted to spike up to the 90’s with high humidity for this game. The Patriots have struggled in this kind of situation and usually if they did pull the win, they didn’t cover the points.
Over 80% of the public bets are on the spread in this on for New England on the road in week one. No real indication of smart money yet on the Dolphins, but I think they’ll be waiting to strike on this one as it may gain a whole extra point at the rate the public is doubting the Dolphins and over valuing New England. Add to that, Miami’s secondary is looking top notch with Cameron Wake and Oliver Vernon who amassed 20 sacks last season.
*Since 1998, the Dolphins are 9-6-1 (60%) ATS at home to the Patriots. Not bad. The Patriots always seem to beat Miami, but Miami went 5-2 (71.4%) ATS last season as underdogs showing some signs of life as a team.
In Oakland:
We have this matchup about even. Definitely not five and a half points. People are all down on Oakland for a number of reasons, but aren’t thinking too much about how the Jets might be thinking about more difficult games ahead. This is too many points. We’re calling it to be close or for Oakland to win straight up.
Reference (By Occurrence)….
Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
Follow up email:
“Guys,
Take a look at Miami.
They’re at +3.5 now (we got them at 5). Clearly, the sharp money is coming down on the Dolphins with us as the public bets are still mostly on the Patriots.
I have another thought to add to this: Since 1996, week one road teams that finished last season with 12 or more wins are just 14-24-1 (36.8%) ATS. Check out how they did on the moneyline….not good! In addition, (credit to Killersports.com for finding this trend which I really love): Since 2005, Tom Brady is 0-12-0 ATS vs. the AFC in a rematch where he had previously completed less than 70%, but racked up OVER 280 yards line -4 or less. Again, thanks to Killersports on that nugget of gold which I’m just seeing now after making this selection.
This play stinks I know it…nobody likes taking the Miami Dolphins against the Patriots, but I’m all over them here in week 1. Considering adding something small like 0.25 units risked on the Dolphins money-line if it comes back to where it was at the open before game time. Usually we don’t want to overreact to additional plus factors after placing a wager. If you got the Dolphins in at a good price just leave it and enjoy the game.
Best regards,
Tom”