NFL Top Play Wins Again in BLOWOUT!
Our NFL Top Play on the Miami Dolphins +108 (straight up; forget the spread) Wins making top plays 3-0 on the season! Runner up Denver Broncos -4 pending and our teasers go 1-0 with one more pending (half won with the Giants tomorrow); here is the writeup for this weekend plus the MNF play on the house:
“NFL WEEK 6 PICKS
Purchase All Active Systems:
Thoughts: Last week we nailed the Cleveland Browns +7 Top Play by an ATS margin of +10.0 (they won SU). We’re on a 3-0 run now with that Top Play and the Giants last week. We went 3-1-1 overall with the Jags blowing a lead late game due to a fumble recovery TD for the Buccs. I’d take that bet again; it was the right call and we got the blunt of some dumb luck.
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FOUR (4) NFL SELECTIONS…
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Week 6 Selections:
–Top Plays (1)
10/18/15 1:00PM Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans
Miami Dolphins +108 (moneyline) *Top Play
1.25 units (+0.25 in the teaser)
RESULT: MIAMI 38 – 10 WINNER!
–Runner Ups (1)
10/18/15 1:00PM Denver Broncos vs Cleveland Browns
Denver Broncos -4 – PENDING…
1.25 units
1.25 units
–Rest of the herd (2)
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6 POINT TEASER (2 Team) — 1 unit PENDING (half won)…
10/18/15 1:00PM Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston Texans +7 WINNER!
+
10/19/15 8:30PM New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles
New York Giants +10
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–TNF
6 POINT TEASER (2 Team) — 0.25 units
8:25PM Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints +9
+
+
10/18/15 1:00PM Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans
Miami Dolphins +7.5
WINNER!
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Just the teasers for now. My leans are BAL, HOU, NYG, MIN and WAS as of now.
I want to see where the money goes, injuries, etc. closer to game time.
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*All Selections are supported by Raw Numbers greater than 1 TDs edge along with Systems and Trends
In Cleveland: (Runner Up)*
I’ve always liked the idea of fading a team I won with last week that was a very contrarian upset. We bought the Browns at a low and now we’re selling at a high. The Browns fit that bill this week.. We caught the Ravens in a breather spot and the Browns shocked them. This week the Browns might have a false sense of themselves while the Broncos are clicking on all cylinders with legit wins (you can argue that sure).
We have two powerful systems checking in for the Broncos and strong raw numbers. The only thing holding me back from making Denver -4 a Top Play is the fact that over 65% of the bets are on the Broncos.
We may come back to this one though if the line moves in our favor or if a few other things I’m looking at come together.
In Tennessee: (Top Play)*
Miami factors in extremely well here in my mind and on the sheets. We have the largest raw number edge on this one out of all games on the slate this week. In addition, I’ve always loved the idea of betting on a team that is seen as garbage in the public eye. Miami is off of an embarrassment at Wembly losing 14-27 against the Jets. Their off of a bye now and will be rabid for a win especially considering…
Dan Campbell comes in as interim head coach this week with an aggressive attitude towards toughening up the Phins. The Titans give up big plays. Their offense has a poor ability to extend completions which is really a big thing I was looking at with Pittsburgh last week. They’re the very opposite. Ryan Tannehill is excellent in the pocket and will be a good help with catalyzing the new design Campbell will put into action.
*System : Road teams between +2 or -2 points around pickem are 24-10-0 ATS since 2004 after failing to cover by a total of 21 points in their last 3 games.
*Ken Whisenhunt is just 1-14-0 SU (-12.33 ppg) and 3-12-0 ATS off of a loss with the Titans.
As for the Saints tonight:
Drew Brees as a home dog with 73% of the public slathered on the Falcons is really tempting…it doesn’t
totally factor in though, but I think it’ll work in a teaser with our top selection (Miami Dolphins).
This hasn’t happened very often: Drew Brees is 3-0 SU (+9.33 ppg) and 3-0 ATS as a 3+ point home dog in the Dome. He’s 5-2 as any home dog. 2-0 against the Falcons in this situation.
***The Saints are 9-1-0 (+8.7 ppg) SU and 8-2-0 ATS at home off of a loss currently seeking revenge for a matchup loss.
*Drew Brees is 4-1 SU +7ppg and 4-1 ATS as a dog against the Falcons. The last time this happened in the dome was 2012 where the Saints won 31-27 in a close shootout which is what I expect tonight.
What I also expect is Rob Ryan, as per usual, to completely fail with the Defense for the Saints because he is a terrible terrible coach. That is the #1 thing holding me back from making the Saints a regular play rather that a teaser. I won’t ever be able to stomach full sized wager on them until they get rid of Rob Ryan.
Anyways, if I have more in NFL and NCAAF, I’ll follow up Friday or Saturday.
Best of luck,
Tom”
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