NFL Week 11: 1-0 +$900 TOP PLAY
We had just one NFL selections this weekend and it qualified as a top play. Here it is with the full writeup…
*(Top Play) —
#419 CLEVELAND BROWNS +9.5 (3.0 Units) WINNER!
over the Dallas Cowboys
Reference (By Occurrence)….
Key NFL Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31
In Dallas:
Projected Final : BROWNS 20 COWBOYS 23 (+6.5 point cover)
CALLED THE EXACT FINAL SCORE!
CALLED THE EXACT FINAL SCORE!
The Cowboys are coming off of a 38-23 Win in Philly that shocked the world. Looking back at that game, I have to give Dallas -5 points in this matchup for dumb luck and not more of a blowout win: 3 defensive turnovers (this isn’t sustainable; sorry Bears) and 2 fumble recoveries (usually these just go 50/50). Point being: the Cowboys love to have these games that impress everyone and then turn into big let downs immediately after or to carry out the season. Meanwhile, the Brownies are coming off of the bye week nice and warmed up after a division loss to the rock solid Ravens (15-25) which was probably closer than the final score: Cleveland shat up 2 Turnovers here and kept it 10 points. I don’t think the Cowboys can be compared to the Ravens at all right now. This line is hugely inflated (and yeah +7.5 or +8 is still great value if that’s what your book has).
Thoughts and Trends:
-Less than 40% of the bets want any part of Cleveland this week yet we’ve been seeing smart money taking the Browns at all kinds of books. Pinnacle seems to be trying to pull the -9.5 trap with the Boys.
-Key Cowboy’s Running Back DeMarco Murray is doubtful right now with a foot injury from last Sunday against the Giants.
*Believe it or not, Since 2008 the road team is 176-116-4 (+2.4 ppg, 60.3%) ATS in November. That simple!
-The Flip flop: Home teams in November are just 31.1% ATS (28-62-0 ATS) after losing 2 or their last three games.
*The Dallas Cowboys are just 1-10-0 (-7.1 ppg) ATS (4-7 SU) after a win since 2011.
-The Boys are only 3-12-0 (-3.7 ppg) ATS since 2010 as home favorites.
-The Browns are a solid 5-2-0 ATS since 2010 on the road for the big points (>+9 spread).
Final Thought: A growing thing in the NFL is of course how marquee games are aired. They are bigger now than before perhaps and so I think players play differently both during those games and in games before to prepare for them.
-Since 2008, Favorites are just 21-39 ATS before a Thursday game. This season they are only 2-9-0 (-8.3 ppg) ATS!