NFL Week 13 Selections and Writeups
***NFL+NCAAF TOP PLAYS: 11-4-0 ATS since NFL WK 5***
These plays were sent earlier. I wanted to fire them off so you could get the lines. Mostly technical raw numbers supporting these plays, but as usual, I have some thoughts…
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–Top Plays (1)
| NFL | Dec 06 1:00 pm | Falcons vs Bucs Take: Falcons +2 -=TOP PLAY=- for 1.5 units |
Thoughts:
The Falcons haven’t covered the spread in one single game of their last 7 games. Reading into it a bit more, you’ll see that they were favorites in every single one of them. That means pressure to perform; this is a different spot. We’re back to how things were for the Falcons at the beginning of this season: not very high expectations; in their first 4 games they went 4-0 ATS and were dogs and 1.5 point favorites in one. As the covered the spread and won, the Falcons came up on the radar and the spread for them got higher and higher. That sort of things changes the dynamic of how a team plays; I’m looking for the Falcons to completely revert back to how they were playing at the opening of this season.
The last time the Buccs and Falcons faced off was in Week 8 in Atlanta where the Buccs won a very close 23-20 game. Reading a bit more into this: Look at how the Buccs won; the Falcons coughed up 4 turnovers and weren’t gifted with any in return. To have kept the game within 3 points was a miracle, but I think says a lot about how another game between these two teams would go: take away those 4 turnovers and the score is something more like 10-27 as all 4 of the turnovers were either in TB territory or in the red zone. Freebies for the lucky ones.
Since 1989, this exact situation is a pretty solid 20-9-1 (+3.78 ppg, 69.0%) ATS: That is, this is same season rematch where the team we’re fading benefited from a turnover margin of 2 or more, at least one was a fumble, they didn’t have a single turnover themselves, AND they only squeaked by a 1,2 or 3 point win.
*Eliminating games where the sum of the current line and previous matchup line for our team was a field goal favorite or more brought this to 17-4-0 81% ATS.
My expectation in this game is a similar performance where, this time, maybe Ryan throws 1 or 2 picks and dials up the same sort of yardage (496 total offensive yards in that game).
–Runner Ups (1)
| NFL | Dec 06 1:00 pm | Ravens vs Dolphins Take: Ravens +4 -=RUNNER UP= for 1.25 units– |
Thoughts:
Last week Miami fired their offensive coordinator. If you haven’t noticed, games following the firing of a coach are very often a bounce back; especially lately. For example, the firing of Rob Ryan on the Saints: you may not see an improvement until the next season. If you’ve ever had your house or dog skunked you know what I mean. (and for God’s sake, Brees still is not the problem with the Saints; their offensive 3rd down conversion percentage is the highest in the league; not just by a little too: 46.17% — unrelated; just had to point it out).
Baltimore is off of a humbling win over the Browns 33-27 thanks to a blocked field goal ran in for a TD in the last seconds of the game by Ravens special teams. If you know anything about Harbaugh, you know that he isn’t the type of coach to congratulate his team after a sloppy win like that one.
The Ravens probably won’t make the playoffs, but one thing is for sure: they definitely will not make it if they don’t win this one. Harbaugh is, without a doubt, taking a stab at this having put together a working team out of practically nothing. No one thought the Ravens were going to win after Shaubs very classic pick 6 last game, but the team shined in the face of adversity.
029ats – A road team off of a road game in a conference matchup is 45-14-2 ATS after each team scored 24+ points. – Strong system here up 3-1 in the process of discovery. GO RAVENS!
–Rest of the herd (1)
| NFL | Dec 06 1:00 pm | Texans vs Bills Take: Bills -3 for 1 unit |
Similar situation here as with the Ravens. If the Bills can pull a win here, they’ll shoot up to a 27.5% chance to squeak into the playoffs.
*After Week 10, road teams exactly 1 game above .500 are just 24-40-6 (37.5%) ATS in non-division games after playing a tough division game. I am expecting the Texans to take a breather here sitting at the top spot in the division off 4 straight wins.
| wins – losses = 1 and week > 10 and A and NDIV and p:DIV | ||||||||||
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*All Selections this week are supported by Raw Numbers greater than 1 TDs edge along with Systems and Trends
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