NFL Week 14 Results…

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2014 NFL Top Play Total – 7-3 (70%) ATS
Thoughts / News:
Las Vegas hit the JACKPOT with the Jags winning straight up over the G-Men last week. Here’s why: the sharps were on the Giants AND the square public bets were all on the Giants. It was over 75% of the betting public (which for the record does include sharp bettors and square bettors; “public” refers to everybody….including us yes) that went in on the Giants on Sunday and due to a fumble that sent the Jags right into the endzone, Jax upset the favorited visitor by a single point in a 25-24 home win. Good job Jacksonville. Congrats Vegas.
The top bet on game for Sunday however, went to the public: Denver Broncos over the Chiefs. This one felt like a really sharp bet on KC; and that is really the main reason I decided to go for it, but man…with a key guy out that game, Denver rails the home team…The Broncos have something special going on and raw numbers are having them come up as a bet even in square spots. Last week, I had them up in my “excellent” catagory where I ranked all of the teams….by the way, teams I had as “overrated” went 1-3 in their last games. By the way, the Broncos voided out a powerful trend: that is: Superbowl losers as road favorites are a long time historically losing proposition. One of those games though, where if we bet KC 1000 times we’d be in the money so I’d take the bet over again and again. Same with the Patriots. The game was close; came down to one big defining moment and Green Bay getting the big 8.5 average yards per pass for the game and then it was done. Sharp plays were: KC, ATL, NE, MIN, NYG, WAS which went 2-4 so a marginal week for Vegas. Anyways…
Some notable things in the news:
*Indianapolis can’t be beaten according to the stuffed suits.
*Johnny Manziel isn’t going to become the golden god for Cleveland this week as Brian Hoyer has been informed that he’ll start vs. Indy.
*Raiders say there will be “a substantial increase in uniformed law enforcement officers, undercover officers, and private security” on Sunday in the game vs. the 49ers.
*Aaron Rodgers has 27,193 passing yards in 99 starts. Most passing yards in first 100 starts: Tony Romo 27,485. Hmm….think Rodgers likes breaking records? He’ll for sure be my fantasy QB for this week!
The Selections:
Game Score Status Pick Amount
St. Louis (W) 24 1:00 PM ET St. Louis -2.5 1.00
Washington 0  WINNER!
Baltimore (W) 28 1:00 PM ET Baltimore +3* 1.00
Miami 13  WINNER!
Buffalo 17 4:05 PM ET Denver -10 1.00
Denver (W) 24  Lost
Seattle (W) 24 4:25 PM ET Seattle +1 1.00
Philadelphia 14  WINNER!
New England (W) 23 8:30 PM ET New England -3* 1.00
San Diego 14  WINNER!
Reference (By Occurrence)….

Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31

In Miami:

This one came close to being a top play, but as you already know, I’m in love with Miami so there’s no way I’m making this a big one. Even after the Jets almost beat them last week. I think they’re and underrated, quality team that may go far here….or they may not. Anyways, picking games in the NFL is about picking spots. Here’s what we’re seeing for this one:
This one may be close. Both teams are in the top 7 points allowed defenses. Both defenses on in the top 10 scoring defenses in the league. Overall, the Ravens are the superior offense; it is close; however, I think the key will be Forsett on the ground for the Ravens. Ravens are converting a nice 44% on 3rd down.
Since this may come down to a field goal battle, Baltimore’s Justin Tucker has the obvious edge over Caleb Sturgis.
Raw numbers are projecting: RAVENS 17 DOLPHINS 13 win for Baltimore plus the points
In Washington:
The Rams are the better team by quite a bit who has also had the harder strength of schedule. Aside from Sam Bradford, the Rams are mostly healthy. Over in Washington though, the list is long and it includes Wide Receiver DeSean Jackson who was injured last game and questionable now for Sunday. This is more of a technical raw number play than anything. I think there are some sharp bettors liking the Skins here; however, I’m not really going to overthink this one as a regular wager.
***Jeff Fisher is 24-14-1 (64.1%) ATS as an NFL head coach against very bad sub .250 teams. 13-4-0 ATS 14-3 SU off of a win.
Raw numbers are projecting: RAMS 23 REDSKINS 16 win for St. Louis -2.5
In Denver:
Demaryius Thomas is now probable, but the Broncos didn’t even need him last week. Should be a crushing with him now if he plays. Here is another one of those put my money where my mouth is picks: I said before the Kyle Orton lacks the qualities of even a mediocre quarterback. He came through with nothing in their Super Bowl with the Patriots and since then I haven’t wanted to touch the Bills with him at the helm. Now I am going to fade him. I know the Bills are off of two wins and people think they’re looking good, but I think this is going to be a stomping.
***The Broncos are 9-0 SU (+16.89 ppg) and 9-0 ATS since 2007 after a road win where they had a 2+ turnover margin.
Raw numbers are projecting: BRONCOS 33 BILLS 17 or 20 win for Denver with the Lumber
In Philly/In San Diego:
Last week we said the Eagles are overrated. Heck, I’ll call them the most overrated team in the league with Mark Sanchez as QB now and a whopping total of 10 non-defensive touchdowns which leads the league by a country mile. The Cardinals and Packers are in second with 5, and by and large, this type of scoring is the product of luck (fact).
***SYSTEM: Since 1989, road teams on their second road game or more are 933-827-46 (53%) ATS. They automatically get undervalued and the superior Seahawks are +1 here?
This system applies to the PATRIOTS as well so I’m combining their writeup here.
Raw numbers are projecting: SEAHAWKS 28 EAGLES 24 win for Seattle with the points
Raw numbers are projecting: PATRIOTS 31 CHARGERS 23 win for New England as the road fav
I would also consider the following bets:
Reference (By Occurrence)….

Key Margins of Victory: 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, 13, 8, 5
Key totals: 41, 37, 44, 51, 43, 33, 40, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 55, 23, 34, 38, 31

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