Teams To Fade as Expensive Road Favorites In 2012

Let's say you have a team that made the public money in an odd spot in MLB one season. It is very possible that this same team losing you money in the same spot next season isn't just natural or random. This may be a bookmaker exploit of the public. Using SDQL you can see that dollars regress each year. 

Let's look at an example:

A Breakdown of MLB Teams as Expensive (-150 or more) Road Dogs In 2010:

SDQL Text: "team and season=2010 and site=away and line<=-150"

TEAM	$ON	W-L (marg, % win)
Reds	300	3-0 (3.67, 100.0%)
Rangers	285	9-3 (1.67, 75.0%)
Phillies	265	16-8 (1.96, 66.7%)
Rays	170	13-7 (1.65, 65.0%)
Padres	150	3-1 (1.25, 75.0%)
Nationals	100	1-0 (5.00, 100.0%)

 

SDQL Text: "season=2010 and (team=Reds or team=Rangers or team=Phillies or team=Rays or team=Padres or team=Nationals) and site==away and line<=-150"

SU: 45-19 (1.9 rpg, 70.3%) average line: -174 / +159 on / against: +$1,270 / -$1,530ROI: +11.4% / -23.9%

No one likes to lay the chalk on a bet in Baseball, but if a team establishes themselves as road warriors one season, it may seem easier to bet them in that same spot the next season. 

Let's see how these same teams came through in the same spot (expensive road favorites) in 2011:

SDQL Text: "site=away and line<=-150 and season=2011 and (team=Reds or team=Rangers or team=Phillies or team=Rays or team=Padres or team=Nationals)"

SU: 28-18 (0.8 rpg, 60.8% [-9.5%]) average line: -174 / +159 on / against: -$399 / +$104 ROI: -5.0% / +2.3%

**So now the dollars go the other way for these same teams. 

The Bigger Picture:

So we have a hypothesis: teams that made you money in a specific spot consistently lose you money in that same spot the next season. Add to that hypothesis: this might be natural regression, but it might also be designed by the linesmaker. The linesmaker constantly looks for spots where a wager would be an easy sell for the betting public. This could be one of them. Let's see what a more thorough query reveals. Create a dollars earned range where we can eliminate the very very high end which could indicate something more than luck or chance. Let's look at the middle of the road to high expensive road favorite money makers and how they do in the same spot in their next season:

SDQL Text:  375>Sum(( line+0<0 and W )*100 or ( 0<0+line and L )*(-100) or ( runs is not None )*(line+0)@team and season and site=away and line<=-150)[team and season-1 and site=away and line< =-150]>125 and site=away and line<=-144

 

SU: 149-124 (0.9 rpg, 54.6%) average line: -167 / +153 on / against: -$5,683 / +$4,043 ROI: -12.5% / +14.8%

So this is a good find that may possibly reveal a bookmaker exploit, and better yet, how to be on the right side of the season to season shift. 

So for 2012, consider fading the St. Louis Cardinal and the Milwaukee Brewers when they are expensive road favorites or at least consider that this may be a trap. The Rangers and the Tigers may regress too; however, they are further on the high end where it may be better to consider that they did well on the road for a reason.