4-0 Sweep Yesterday
Two team parlay:
#059 Winnipeg Jets +1.5 PL
#064 Calgary Flames ML
(0.95 to win 1 unit) WINNER!
“Basic” Raw Number on Calgary
Since 2010, a team off of a hard division win goes 58-30 +33.2 units against an opponent tired off of two road wins. Average line +101.2!
Active on Winnipeg.
|Texas||3||10:05 PM ET||Texas +138||0.50|
|Oakland||1||WINNER!||Lewis / Hahn||to win|
|LA Angels||2||10:10 PM ET||LA Angels +118||0.50|
|Seattle||0||WINNER!||Wilson / Paxton||to win|
|San Diego||7||10:10 PM ET||San Diego +152||0.50|
|LA Dodgers||3||WINNER!||Ross / Greinke||to win|
*Some rules for this season:
1. By default we will do Listed / Listed (pitchers from what the raw numbers say)
2. By default we will do TO WIN said units for Favorites
3. By default we will do TO RISK said units for Dogs.
….unless otherwise noted.
Case in point, today. Rather than risking a half unit, I want to make a smaller wager on each of these TO WIN 0.5 units.
I hope that is clear; if not, shoot me an email and I can explain it.
Anyways, today the three plays fit the bill about 99% of the way. I’m not going to pass though, but since it doesn’t 100% fit the mark I’m going for a half unit.
Let’s not be hasty this season. We’ll make bigger wagers when the real winners come to us.
The reason the three don’t “meet the mark 100%” is not because of a Negative….it is purely due to a lack of data.
But actually, a lack of data (in theory at least) means one thing:
The matchup should AT LEAST be a 50/50 coin toss which gives inherent edge to the dog.
586-601 (49.4%, +185.15 units, +15.6% roi) System
Active today on the Angels…
We’re looking at sub .600 dogs that haven’t yet played 28 full games.
On the blind this is 1340-1638 +145.99 units!
Favorites took it in the pooper yesterday and we lost a quarter of a unit.
Sucks, but can only be a good thing for a long term strategy this month: betting dogs primarily.
One other thing that applies to all three of these is this:
Teams that won their home opener as Favorites are just 30-31 (-17.49 units, +22.5% roi to fade) the next game as home favorites again.
Makes sense, the team gets a little cocky…we’ll see. Don’t go huge on these three.
Nothing for today.