Super Bowl XLIV Free Pick
26-20-2 54.1% (+29.55 units) +$5,910.00
Let’s try to come back today. I’ll be playing the Saints tomorrow for the super bowl; I see every reason to take them as dogs for a very small bit at least for value (although what I meant was that I see every reason for the Saints to win this one regardless). The public is all over the Colts so I am going to analyze this one here:
First let’s look at the opening line. The average ML for a line of 2.5 is:
-132.9 for the Favorite (Colts)
and +109.7 for the Dog (Saints)
The actual averaged opener was about -155 and +135 Giving an automatic edge towards the Colts. Now this is important because it is the unaffected fresh line. The linesmakers are setting the ML askew having the opinion that even money will come in only if the Saints are set as bigger dogs.
So what does the market look like? We had the Colts line getting pounded immediately for whatever reason moving our line up to about an average of 5. Perhaps the Colts got pounded because they were marked initially as bigger favorites than the line dictates. Big names also move the line by the square public. This one has got Peyton Manning vs. the what were their names again? My guys are the Saints fellas; I’ve been watching them all season long, and these guys play like machines and they play with passion. If I can say one thing: my opinion is that they are hugely underrated after I see how this line has moved.
Okay, back to the line analysis. Let’s look at the average range and then compare that to the actual. For a line of 5 points we should have a ML of -249.0 and +199.3. Across the board we are seeing an average market line of -209 and +175. So what we are seeing here is a reversed deviation, and now the Saints being a little more favored. This super bowl has seen pretty good reverse line movement, and now I think the avg. line of 5 will stick or move more towards 4.
So as of now we have a slight market edge on the Saints, but not a very large one. I am analyzing this game for you guys to show you that if you want to go by this system please realize that the Bowl is a game like any other as far as making money is concerned. This is a game where it is probably better to go on and fade the public as a rule of thumb. The superbowl is always going to have more suckers all over it than any other game so don’t be one too. Keep to your system and don’t go betting the house on this one game. I will take the Saints for 2 units.
Saints +6 (1 unit) Bodog
Saints ML +180 (1 unit) Bookmaker
If we lose this one we are still doing just fine boys.